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让金砖更广泛参与全球治理

2017-08-15 08:05:35   新华网

  金砖国家合作有相当大的潜力,期待金砖国家未来在一些领域采取更有力的集体行动。

我提出“金砖”概念已有16年。令我没有想到的是,在我提出这一概念短短几年后,巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国领导人就建立起了金砖国家合作机制,并将南非纳入其中。从2009年金砖国家领导人第一次会晤算起,8年时间已经过去,我现在是如何看待金砖国家的呢?

我从未想到“金砖”一词如此流行,并成为描绘新兴市场国家崛起、世界趋势变化的符号。在这16年时间里,世界形势发生了许多变化,无论是经济活动的驱动力,还是全球合作和全球治理的模式,都发生了改变。

我脑海里最早出现“金砖”一词,是令人震惊的“9·11”恐怖袭击事件发生后。恐袭发生几天后,我意识到一个深层次的问题,那就是经济全球化似乎越来越变成“美国化”,这是不可持续的。为了使全球化持续下去,世界需要允许并鼓励其他国家参与全球经济治理并发挥更大作用。

促使我提出“金砖”一词的另一驱动力量是中国经济的崛起,这一点在2001年已经非常明显。自1990年我第一次访问中国以来,我对中国经济一直非常醉心,并对中国在亚洲金融危机中发挥的作用印象深刻。换言之,早在1998年,中国已在影响全球经济和金融方面发挥关键作用。

长期经济增长主要靠两个因素驱动:一是适龄劳动人口的规模,二是劳动生产率。劳动人口充裕且生产力水平高的国家将有可能成长为大型经济体。在这一理论指引下,我开始寻找全球范围内哪些人口大国有潜力成长为大型经济体。中国和印度是全球仅有的两个人口超过10亿的国家,巴西是拉丁美洲人口最多的国家,俄罗斯同样非常具有潜力。于是我将四者组合,提出“金砖”概念。接下来所发生的一切,顺应了历史不可阻挡的趋势。最初我没有把南非算入其中,因为它的人口规模还比较小,只有5000万左右。但我认为南非加入金砖机制是一件好事,发挥了积极和建设性的作用。

今天,金砖国家经济总量占全球的23%,与美国的经济规模相当。我在高盛的同事还预测,到2030年金砖国家的经济规模将比七国集团的总和还要大。

我不时阅读到预测金砖国家经济失败的文章,但16年来,金砖国家经济总量占全球的比重增长了一倍。巴西和俄罗斯在本世纪第二个10年的表现虽然不尽如人意,但它们在世界经济总量中的比重与2001年时相当。中国经济增长非常迅速,国内生产总值总量接近12万亿美元。金砖国家合作有相当大的潜力。

即将在中国厦门举行的金砖国家领导人第九次会晤的主题是“深化金砖伙伴关系,开辟更加光明未来”,我认为这非常有必要。目前,金砖国家每年举行会晤,就贸易、金融等议题讨论交流。此外,金砖国家还就争取在国际货币基金组织和世界银行中享有更多投票权进行努力,我认为这是正确的方向,因为投票权应该反映相应的经济规模。我期待着金砖国家未来在一些领域采取更有力的集体行动。

(吉姆·奥尼尔 作者为美国高盛公司前首席经济学家)

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