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换美元也能亏?人民币对美元半年升值近4%

2017-08-14 12:32:50   中国青年网

人民币对美元今年来的走势估计出乎很多人的意料——年初时“年内破7”被当做大概率事件,而至今却已升值近4%。特别是刚刚过去的这一周,人民币走出了加速上涨的曲线,8月11日,人民币对美元中间价报6.6642,为去年9月22日来的新高,这一周人民币中间价累计调升490个基点。而境内在岸市场更是一周涨幅接近1%。

时间回到去年11月底,当时人民币对美元也出现了一个加速的曲线,不过方向是向下。去年11月中旬到月底的半个月时间,人民币从6.80跌到了6.90。当时,人民币从年初的6.50贬值已达6.23%,更从10月份开始加速,到11月底贬值幅度达到3.45%。

人民币当时的走势甚至引起了不少人的恐慌。如今人们使用美元的机会越来越多,比如出国旅游,比如海淘以美元计价的商品,更别说家里有孩子出国留学,那更是需要大量的美元。所以人民币的贬值让人觉得自己的资产在贬值,很多人都考虑要不要换些美元来保值甚至升值。

时间过去了八九个月,如今回头看,当时如果是急需要用美元的人,人民币这期间的升值就可以忽略了。但如果仅仅是为了保值升值而在当时把手里的人民币换成了美元的人,如今却是损失不少。简单算一笔账,假设当时以6.90的汇率把人民币换成了美元,按照最新的6.6642算,损失大约3.4%,算上一年期的美元存款利率1%,损失为2.4%。而这仅仅是直接损失,如果没有换成美元,做了其他的投资呢?先看比较保险的,如果买了人民币理财产品,今年来连余额宝的收益率都一直维持在4%以上,不少银行的理财产品收益率更是超过5%。再看比较激进的其他投资,比如基金。数据显示,今年前7个月,233只主动股票型基金平均收益为7.95%,其中,184只基金取得正收益,占比近八成,业绩收益超过20%的股票型基金有31只。这里里外外的损失可真是不小。难怪有人会抱怨:“原以为只有炒股会亏,没想到换点美元也能亏这么多。”

至于人民币企稳升值的原因,从内部看,与我国采取了多种措施有关,包括加大监管力度、提高离岸市场做空人民币的成本等。同时,上半年国内经济增长稳健,也支持人民币汇率稳定;从外部看,美元走弱是人民币近期强势的主要原因,今年以来美元贬值幅度高达8.6%。

对于人民币接下来的走势,有观点认为还会继续升值,也有观点认为大概率会保持稳定,升值空间会比上半年有所收窄。但认为人民币会贬值的观点几乎没有。

其实,关于投资有个很简单的道理,当人们一窝蜂地觉得哪里有机会的时候,恐怕反而要冷静地躲着走了。王莉

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