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新闻分析:政治稳定护航欧元区主要经济体发展

2017-08-04 20:35:33   新华网

新华社柏林8月3日电 新闻分析:政治稳定护航欧元区主要经济体发展

新华社记者朱晟 邓茜 乔继红

德国伊弗经济研究所3日发布报告说,欧元区经济发展动力强劲,无论是从目前的经济状态,还是从今后的发展前景来看,该研究所对欧元区主要经济体的预期均有所提高。

不久前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中,将欧元区今明两年经济增速预期分别上调0.2和0.1个百分点至1.9%和1.7%。报告同时将德国和法国今年经济增长预期分别上调至1.8%和1.5%,但将英国经济增长预期下调至1.7%。

欧元区增长稳健

伊弗经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特表示,欧元区经济强劲的发展势头将持续到今年下半年。

欧盟统计局近日发布的数据显示,欧元区19国今年第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)初值环比增长0.6%,高于第一季度0.5%的增幅。当季欧盟28国GDP环比也增长0.6%。与去年同期相比,欧元区和欧盟经济分别增长2.1%和2.2%。

能源价格低位徘徊以及欧洲央行超低利率政策对欧元区内需形成支撑。此外,欧元区就业形势持续好转也保障了消费增长。6月,欧元区19国失业率已降至9.1%,为2009年2月以来最低水平。

分析人士认为,欧元区第二季度GDP环比增幅符合预期,欧元区和欧盟未来经济走势依然向好。

英国《金融时报》分析师迈赫林·卡恩表示,0.6%的增速预示着欧洲经济向好,这对欧盟各国领导人而言是利好消息,尤其是在民粹主义在部分欧洲国家抬头的背景下。

荷兰国际集团资深经济分析师贝尔特·科莱恩说:“欧元区经济上半年稳健收官,而且为下半年继续强劲增长奠定了良好基础。”

政治稳定助益经济发展

政治风险是近年来欧元区经济增长面临的重要不确定因素之一。今年年初,一些经济学家认为频繁的政治选举和民粹主义抬头会给整个欧元区带来巨大不确定性,并预计欧元区经济增长会放缓。

不过,法国、荷兰等主要成员国大选尘埃落定,民粹主义纷纷失利。欧元区第一大经济体德国将于9月举行大选,但与选举相关的不确定性在减弱。法国、德国的经济均呈现出稳健增长态势。

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