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北京大学汇丰商学院院长、经济学教授海闻做客深圳创新发展研究院
央广网深圳9月16日消息(记者大为) 9月15日,在深圳创新发展研究院智库报告厅,北京大学汇丰商学院院长,北京大学经济学教授、博士生导师海闻做了中国经济新周期来临?——如何判断中国经济未来走势的主题演讲。海闻在深圳创新发展研究院发表演讲时表示,经济周期波动是产业结构调整所致,目前中国经济还处于2008年以来的宏观经济周期。不过,总体来讲,中国这一轮经济周期正在企稳向好。近年来,中国经济增速有所放缓,GDP增速从2011年的9.5%下降到2016年的6.7%,令外界对中国未来经济发展产生不少忧虑。海闻认为,中国经济增速下行的主要原因是宏观经济的周期波动,以及中等收入时期缺乏经济增长的动力。实际上,每一次宏观经济的周期波动都包括经济的衰退、底谷、复苏以及顶峰。从1978年到2016年,数据显示,中国经济曾出现过3次“底谷”,分别为1980年代初、1990年代初和1990年代末。
对于中国未来的经济走势,海闻显得比较乐观。他指出,任何国家的经济一定是波浪形前进的,未来几年,中国经济的增长速度或将达到7%,一个新的周期可能在未来两三年内到来。而未来二十年内,中国经济保持增长也不存在问题。海闻说,和发达国家相比,中国经济有三个特殊因素。第一,我国还在发展中,仍处于起飞阶段,即使从中长期来看,我们仍然要比别的国家增长得更快。第二,中国是转型中的国家,转型本身带来很多方面的改革,可以释放很多的空间。第三,中国是一个大国,大国的经济发展比小国有更大的动力。“未来中国经济的增长动力将和现在不一样,前面30年我们很大程度上取决于制造业,特别是劳动密集型制造业,将来10年甚至20年里,主要增长动力来自服务业。”海闻说。不过,中国经济在发展过程中也面临着挑战。
海闻表示,其中一个挑战是市场经济体制的建立,目前利益集团对改革的抵抗力是很强的,需要一个强有力的中央政府来推动。中国面临的另一大挑战是人才流动,制度好了人才能否适应将至关重要。中国要深化改革,便要积极参与国际事务,最重要的是分享经济增长的成果。
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