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我国台风路径预报准确率国际领先

2017-09-15 16:36:47   新华网

新华社北京9月15日电(记者 侯雪静)记者15日从中国气象局了解到,我国24小时台风路径预报误差连续五年小于美国、日本气象部门。

今年7月21日至7月30日,6个台风生成,其中3个登陆我国,它们或短促、或多变的发展轨迹,都被准确掌握。

我国从2010年开始发布120小时台风路径预报,从2012年开始我国台风路径预报误差逐年缩小。2016年,该预报误差已经比美国低80多公里、比日本低50多公里。

国家气象中心主任毕宝贵说,我国台风路径预报能力的提升,得益于集合预报技术的发展、观测站网的完善、卫星数据定量分析的优化应用以及客观化业务模型和预报平台的改进。

“特别是我国首创的‘多集合预报模式系统的集成订正技术’,得到多个国家和区域气象机构的认可及采纳。该技术通过最新实况定位,在路径集合预报中优选一定数目的‘好成员’,少数‘好成员’的‘平均成绩’自然要比集合平均更佳。”毕宝贵说。

同时,我国已初步建成以气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、探空气球、地面自动观测站、海上浮标等为基础的实时台风综合观测体系。在台风尚未生成的时候,预报员便开始对洋面上空进行监测,主要依靠卫星等预报;当台风逼近沿海时,多普勒天气雷达、探空气球、海上浮标等的使用有助于精准“刻画”台风的登陆点。

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