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交行发布中国财富景气指数 不动产投资意愿上升
2017-08-09 12:11:46 中国青年网
8月7日,交通银行发布第42期《交银中国财富景气指数报告》。在经济增长总体平稳、出口形势改善、物价温和的宏观环境下,交银中国财富景气指数保持年初以来的波动上行趋势达到140点。其中,不动产投资意愿指数结束了长达8个月的下行趋势,本期止跌回升,涨幅达5个百分点。经济景气指数和收入增长指数分别上涨5个百分点,全国各地区受访小康家庭对财富景气乐观程度普遍提升。
“本期的一级指标经济景气指数为138点,比5月调查数据上升了6个基点,达到2015年以来最高。”交通银行金融研究中心副总经理、该指数负责人周昆平表示。“交银中国财富景气指数”由经济景气指数、收入增长指数和投资意愿指数三个一级指标计算得来,旨在通过对全国多个不同经济发展水平的城市及地区的调研,反映国内小康家庭的财富景气状态及其发展趋势。
报告显示,今年6月商品房销售情况超出市场预期,单月销售额增速创年内新高,待售面积环比减少1441万平方米。与以往不同的是,小康家庭对不动产投资的增长主要依靠非核心城市的带动。“由于近期三、四线城市房产成交量高速成长,房价也逐步看涨,使得多套房的投资者对三四线城市的不动产投资市场比较看好。”周昆平表示,本期分城市调研数据显示,非核心城市现在和未来不动产投资意愿均有大幅上升,是推动本期不动产投资意愿止跌回升的主要原因。持有多套房的小康家庭对现在不动产投资意愿增幅较大,这可能是由于近期三、四线城市成交量高速成长,房价逐步看涨,使其对三、四线城市不动产投资市场比较看好。未来不动产投资方面,持有0~1套房产家庭投资意愿上升较为显著,可见未来刚需购房需求依然较大。
此外,6月制造业PMI和非制造业PMI均显著上升,规模以上工业企业利润增速比5月加快2.4个百分点。企业效益好转推动本期投资景气指数上涨6个百分点。就业方面,据工商总局数据,上半年平均每天新设企业16000家,保持活跃发展势头,一定程度上对扩大就业、解决待业问题起到积极作用,使得就业形势指数上升5个百分点。(戎青)
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