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基本面向好 港股出现10年最长连月升浪

2017-08-07 21:35:36   中国青年网

新华社香港8月7日电题:基本面向好 港股出现10年最长连月升浪

新华社记者张欢 李滨彬

恒生指数今年1月至7月开创了10年最长连月升浪,并在8月初依然表现优良,7日收盘上涨127.68点,报27690.36点。专业分析人士指出,此轮表现是基本面向好的健康升势,其中内地因素成为关键推力。基于此,市场对于香港股市的未来走势较为乐观。

恒生指数1月至7月累计上涨5323点,升幅达到24.2%,开创10年最长的连月升浪,且是受良好基本面支撑的健康涨势。自2007年至今,香港股市曾跌落于11344点的低谷,也曾有过30000点以上的高位,但从未呈现此轮长达7个月的连续升势。

市场比较一致的评价认为,这次香港股市持续上涨的主要原因是基本面因素较好。招商证券(国际)策略分析师纪春华说,今年以来企业盈利复苏,不少企业盈利上升15%,估值也相应提高,由此带动了市场预期提升。

半年多以来,香港蓝筹股业绩基本向好,股价上涨较快,尤其是占比较高的友邦、汇丰控股、腾讯股份等重磅股。

曾任香港恒生指数公司顾问委员会成员的经济学家雷贤达认为,今年股市上涨的持续时间较长,股市指数上涨幅度较大,市场堪称进入“大时代”。

恒生指数在最近10年之中与国企指数及上证指数、深证成指的相关性逐步提升,表明内地市场对香港股市的影响不断扩大。包括中资公司上市、两地互联互通建设、资本走出去在内的“内地能量”,已经成为推动香港股市健康升势的关键。

香港作为内地资本市场重要的海外平台,承接大量内地企业的融资工作。万得资讯的数据显示,截至2016年底,H股、红筹股及内地民营企业在港上市的股票数量占比约为50%,与内地相关的企业约占港股60%市值、贡献约70%成交量,H股和红筹股贡献了70%左右的IPO及再融资量。

从一系列中资企业近期发布的盈利喜讯及半年报来看,今年上半年大多经营状况良好,尤其是资源类行业;内地银行股也有改善,多数公司的股价创下历史新高。由此可见,恒指今年连续数月的上涨,与内地企业的参与密不可分。

从2014年11月“沪港通”启动,及2016年12月“深港通”启动,资金总体呈现“南下”渐强的格局。根据港交所的统计数据,截至今年7月底,“沪港通”净流入资金约4363.47亿元,“深港通”净流入资金约543.14亿元。

伴随南下资金进入,中资金融股、科网股、汽车股等板块成为今年前7个月的涨势热点,权重指数股也上行,港交所亦创出两年以来的新高。同时,内地资本寻求全球化配置的需求,也显示了香港“桥头堡”的功能。

8月伊始,股市表现依然优良,多日创下历史高位。加之资金面向好、港股估值洼地优势,以及内地资本市场进一步开放的红利效应,业界看好香港股市的未来走势。

宏汇证券研究部主管林嘉麒谈到,在多数行业展现盈利的基础上,市场预期8月多数公司业绩良好。9月走势会受到美联储缩表及欧洲央行退市等外围货币政策的影响,不过鉴于市场已经较为充分消化预期,股市承受的压力不大。

多位市场人士判断,就更长期的发展而言,香港市场将受益于内地资本市场的进一步开放。基于多方面优势,以及人民币国际化的机遇,香港离岸市场的地位会进一步强化,承接的资金量将更多,股票和衍生品交易额均会显著提升。

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