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日前召开的全国金融工作会议指出:要推动经济去杠杆。尽管与世界主要经济体相比,我国的整体杠杆率(债务与GDP之比)并非很高,但国际金融危机以来,杠杆率较快攀升,需要引起警惕。推动经济去杠杆,既能解决当下经济运行中的突出问题,又能促进经济长期平稳健康发展。
首先应该明确的是,去杠杆并不是不要杠杆。杠杆是经济、金融和信用发展的必然产物。只要发展市场经济,只要存在信用制度,杠杆就不可能消除。去杠杆指的是将杠杆降到合理的程度,这既包括杠杆的水平合理,也包括杠杆的结构合理。
从我国实际出发,去杠杆不可能毕其功于一役。我国目前的杠杆率和杠杆结构并非朝夕之间形成的,而是长期累积的结果。长期以来,我国直接融资发展不尽如人意,银行信贷的持续较快增长直接推动了杠杆率的上升。而政府信用又在一定程度上为国企债务水平攀升提供了隐性背书。当前我国经济运行总体平稳,但房地产市场调整和国际市场不确定性预示着经济运行仍有一定下行压力。在当前经济环境下去杠杆,要控制好力度和节奏,既要积极,又要稳妥。
与相对偏高的杠杆水平相比,我国的杠杆结构问题更应引起关注。在政府杠杆率、居民杠杆率、金融企业杠杆率和非金融企业杠杆率中,虽然地方政府债务水平偏高,但中央政府债务水平较低,因而政府部门的杠杆水平仍属良性状态;虽然近年来我国居民部门的债务增长较快,但从国际比较来看,主要发达国家居民杠杆率都远高于我国,我国居民杠杆率仍将继续处在较低水平;虽然金融业尤其是银行业同业业务、表外业务扩展迅速,但今年以来,金融去杠杆效果比较明显,银行业整体杠杆水平处在审慎监管要求范围内,主要问题是部分中小银行杠杆率较高;虽然非金融企业杠杆率今年以来有所下降,但在可比较的国际样本中仍处在高位。企业杠杆率高,还本付息的负担就重,企业用于投资和生产的财务资源就会受到制约。企业杠杆率持续处在高位,必然伴随流动性风险。可见,虽然我国整体杠杆率不算太高,但非金融企业杠杆率偏高,这是具有明显负面效应的结构问题。
不仅如此,目前国有企业的杠杆率明显高于非国有企业,在国有企业中又存在着一些“僵尸企业”。这意味着较多的金融资源配置给了效率较低的企业。这显然不利于整个经济体的劳动生产率提升和市场竞争力增强,并潜藏着系统性金融风险。因此,推动经济去杠杆,应当以企业降杠杆为重点,把国有企业降杠杆作为重中之重,并抓好处置“僵尸企业”工作。
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