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媒体:韩国新总统能解决萨德和半岛问题吗?

2017-05-10 01:22:16   侠客岛

虽然正式的结果要到10日早上才公布,但无论是从韩国三大电视台发布的共同民调结果,还是今晚上另外两位候选人间接“承认败选”的举动看,韩国新任总统,已经非文在寅莫属。

从朴槿惠陷入闺蜜干政门开始,半年多的时间里,韩国国内政局的变化、围绕半岛的风云,直让人有恍如隔世之感。这期间,有韩国史上最大规模的民众示威游行,有从“国家的女儿”到阶下囚的总统,有围绕萨德的官方交锋与民间冷冻,更有半岛局势的波诡云谲。

摆在文在寅面前的,是一个非常难以收拾的巨大摊子。于是,我们跟岛叔、资深半岛问题专家三江汇友谈了谈。

1、侠客岛:1953年出生的文在寅,在2012年就曾经惜败于朴槿惠。这次无论是民调遥遥领先还是对手提前认输,都表明了他此次优势巨大。您在去年11月就说过文在寅当选悬念不大,为什么?究竟是什么造就了他这么大的优势?

三江:首先,可以说,朴槿惠事件对共同民主党、对文在寅上台的“帮助”最大。朴执政的最后时期,无论是腐败案,是在拖着不下台、对民众的态度,还是其所代表的保守势力中官商勾连的状况,都让民众彻底对新国家党、自由韩国党等保守政党感到极度失望,把保守势力再执政的可能性消耗掉了。正是因为对朴槿惠为首的保守势力的极度失望,才让民众转过头来,认为文在寅会给它们带来新的希望。

第二,关键的问题还是经济。在朴槿惠治下,韩国经济增长率低下,后期又与中国闹掰,青年人对社会的不满意度越来越大,保守派代表的大企业、官僚层根本看不到普通民众的疾苦。这让人数占比更多的普通民众,更多有社会上升通道被阻塞之感。文在寅的出身并不显赫,后来做的律师。他的成长经历,让很多韩国人觉得在他身上找到了希望,有代入感,所以用选票,把对朴槿惠的失望,转化成了转化成了对文在寅的希望。

第三,在韩国社会当中,比较喜欢政治色彩明显的人。文在寅的政治光谱是明确的,继承了卢武铉时代的左派政策;他的竞选对手洪准杓选票相对较高,一定程度上也因为其极度渲染自己的保守派色彩。这迎合了韩国社会左右对立、保守和进步对立的态度。国民之党候选人安哲秀得票最低,也证明在韩国社会的政治光谱中,两边都想讨好,等于两边都打耳光,不太行得通。

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