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朝鲜下月或再次进行核试 韩媒称萨德搞砸了一切

2016-09-16 10:42:51   国际在线

朝鲜9月9日第五次核试验的余波未散,另一个惊人的消息传来。韩国国防部发言人近日透露,韩美情报机构认为,朝鲜或许会在下个月再次核试,比如在10月10日朝鲜劳动党建党纪念日这一天核试的可能性很大。

一时间,韩国国内愁云加剧,紧张升级。有人提议韩国也要发展核武,“以核制核”;还有人说,韩国应该建立“大规模惩罚报复作战理念”,对朝鲜重点目标实施消灭行动。

众声喧哗中,韩国舆论有一种声音值得倾听:“正是朴槿惠政府同意美军在韩国部署‘萨德’反导系统搞砸了一切,因此有必要重新审视“萨德”的部署问题。”

在朝鲜一核试、西方便把责任推给中国的习惯性炒作中,这样的声音清醒而理性,因为它抓住了朝核危机的实质。

说到朝核危机,要从上世纪90年代说起。当时,美国根据卫星资料怀疑朝鲜开发核武器,扬言要对朝鲜的核设施实行检查。朝鲜则宣布无意也无力开发核武器,同时指责美国在韩国部署核武器威胁它的安全,朝核危机由此爆发。

其后,朝鲜危机上演了国际原子能机构核检、朝鲜宣称退出《不扩散核武器条约》、六方会谈、朝鲜核试、联合国制裁等复杂剧情。2016年7月之后,这一剧情达到高潮:美韩以防范朝鲜核威胁为由,宣称在韩国部署“萨德”系统,结果引发了朝鲜发射多轮导弹以及不顾联合国严厉制裁进行第五次核试。

在朝鲜核试问题上,中国的态度很明确:坚决反对,因为这会威胁地区和平稳定,也威胁中国自身的安全利益和周边国家的安全利益;在部署“萨德”问题上,中国的态度也很明确:坚决反对,因为这不利于维护半岛和平稳定,严重损害包括中国在内本地区国家的战略安全利益和地区战略平衡。

由此可见,在朝核问题上,中国不偏袒任何一方,着眼的是地区安全与稳定。正因此,中国发起并一直努力推动六方会谈。在朝鲜核试后,中国也履行联合国对朝鲜的制裁决议。不过,制裁是为了阻止朝鲜继续核试,只能治标,并不能从根本上解决半岛危机。

那么怎样才能治本?就是以安全换安全。现在的朝鲜半岛态势其实很奇葩:朝鲜战争过去60多年了,交战双方竟然没有签署和平协议,这岂不意味着仍处于战争状态?所以,朝鲜一直要求美国跟它谈,给它提供安全承诺与保障。但是,由于美朝双方互不信任,加上各方利益纠结,基本上是谈两步退一步。而美国近年来四处开战的穷兵黩武政策,加深了朝鲜的不安全感。特别是美国准备把“萨德”部署到朝鲜半岛,更让朝鲜感到威胁已至家门口,频繁试射导弹、继续核试,是意料之中的激烈反弹。

解铃还须系铃人,既然朝核危机的起因在美国,解决的关键还在美国。在这个问题上,韩国的朴总统显然陷入了迷思,以为引入“萨德”就能护韩国周全,其实是让韩国更加不安全了。从朝鲜近期发射的导弹来看,射程和水准有了很大的提升。难怪有分析认为,恐怕朴总统没建好“萨德”这个盾,朝鲜的“矛”就越来越锋利了。更严重的是,“萨德”拆散了大国协商一致约束朝鲜的共识,令通过和谈来解决朝核危机的机会更小。

去年获雨果奖的中国科幻小说《三体》,描述了一个极度缺乏安全感和信任感的黑暗森林。眼下的朝鲜半岛局势与之类似。核试与萨德,朝韩双方这么一来一去,搞得双方更加对立,更加感到不安全。

就朝鲜而言,一味强力反弹除了在国际上刷刷存在感之外,并不能给自己带来想要的安全保障,处境反而会更加孤立、更加艰难;对韩国来说,朴总统与其听美国话,把“萨德”这么个定时炸弹安到自家来害人害已,不如在美国身上动点脑筋,使点劲儿把有关各方拉回谈判桌前。

毕竟,只有从根儿上解决美朝互信问题,用安全换安全,半岛局势才会趋于稳定,朝韩双方也才能获得真正想要的安全。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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