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媒体:朝鲜无法复制中国"两弹"之路(图)

2016-02-07 18:05:21   环球网

这是朝鲜中央电视台2月7日报道中出现的“‘光明星4号’地球观测卫星”发射现场照片。(来源:韩联社)

朝鲜于北京时间7日上午约8点30分发射一枚远程火箭,朝鲜官方今天中午宣布“成功发射对地观测卫星‘光明星四号’”,而美韩日均将朝鲜的这次发射活动定性为“远程导弹试验”,并作出强烈反应。

朝鲜的导弹远程火箭及导弹技术显然在逐渐进步,但平壤离掌握成熟的远程导弹系统以及建立相关的战略威慑力还有遥远距离。朝鲜希望能够有效威胁美国本土,但它把这件事看得过于简单了。

华盛顿至今视朝鲜的发射活动为“严重挑衅”,国际上也大多不相信朝鲜能够在可预见的未来实现核武器小型化及与火箭的弹弹结合,从而拥有能恐吓亚太、震慑美国的远程核打击部队。

仅就远程导弹来说,它与火箭技术大体相同,但区别还是有的。首先,使用液体推进剂的远程导弹威慑力有限,因为添注的时间太长,导弹的机动性和反应速度都受到很大限制。固体燃料导弹需要新的革命,而专家们大多分析,朝鲜的远程导弹推进剂即使在液态推进剂中也是比较落后的,可靠性不高。朝鲜还没有过成功的远程导弹试射纪录,“光明星”火箭发射只要入轨就算“成功”,但是导弹与火箭毕竟不一样,前者需要重返大气层,而后者却不需要。

远程导弹试验需要庞大的技术体系支持,比如导弹发射出去,它的飞行姿态、轨道精度,以及落点是否准确等都需要测量。但是朝鲜没有支持这种测量的系统,美韩方面认为,朝鲜对导弹发射的测试能力大体限于“被望远镜提高了的视距之内”。加上朝鲜的导弹及火箭落入大洋后基本不可能打捞回来,因此朝鲜导弹试验的数据搜集极为困难。

朝鲜的工业体系无法制造发展远程导弹及核弹所需的全部材料和零配件,因此必须有一部分依赖海外采购。随着国际制裁越来越严,这类采购也必将遭进一步打击。

有人认为朝鲜今天研制核武器及远程导弹所面临的困难与当年中国搞“两弹”时很相似,既然中国成功了,朝鲜也能“闯过去”。必须指出,中朝的情况完全不可比,一些人主张的上述说法显然属战略误读。

首先,时代就不一样,中国当年面临的环境与朝鲜当前的环境不可同日而语。中国当年研发的时候还没有《不扩散核武器条约》,在这个机制出来之后,任何国家开发核武器都会在国际上被视为非法。

第二,中国毕竟是大国,幅员辽阔,从一开始就在沙漠中建立了庞大的核试验场,导弹试射也有足够的国土来展开。中国的“两弹”有“大三线”的巨大功劳。而朝鲜的地域空间太小,海外又无属地,很多试验无法展开。

此外,中国早期“两弹”的战略威慑力有限,是后来的改革开放强化了我们的整体科技实力,支持了“两弹”的后续现代化。中国的战略核威慑随着陆基洲际弹道导弹的机动化以及巨浪海基发射系统不断升级而一步步变得可信、有力。

朝鲜目前尚处在“核装置”和“远程火箭”阶段,而且这两项技术的“超前发展”脱离了朝全面科技进步及经济繁荣,因而显得孤单,缺乏其他助力。截至目前,很难说发展“两弹”给朝鲜国家安全带来的支撑效应多,还是对它的战略损害更多。

朝鲜“两弹”能发展到什么程度,这决非平壤的政治决心就能决定。它们牵动的地缘政治博弈十分复杂,也非朝鲜通过“机智”就能巧妙驾驭的。如何走出越来越严重的困局,还须平壤三思。

责任编辑:翟明 CN040
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