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难民潮源于自以为是的“民主改造”(深度观察)

2015-10-07 18:52:17   

近期,难民问题搅动欧洲,举世关注。据统计,今年抵达欧洲的难民已超过50万人,且难民溺亡等事件频发,已导致3000多人遇难或失踪。这是二战以来最严重的难民危机,对欧洲的政治生态和社会稳定也造成一定冲击,成为各政党博弈的议题。欧盟成员国也为分摊责任陷入纷争,使本已在经济复苏乏力和乌克兰危机中苦苦挣扎的欧洲雪上加霜。尽管欧盟要求其成员国秉持“欧洲和欧盟精神”,就新难民的配额方案承担起责任,但其内部纷争未了,欧洲的道德形象也大受影响。

在欧洲发酵的难民危机根源在中东,不断涌入欧洲的难民来自西亚北非战乱国家。今年前8个月仅希腊登记的约25万难民中,叙利亚人就有近18万,他们为了生存而不顾千难万险外逃。笔者曾先后在伊拉克和叙利亚生活多年,那里虽不是一些人眼中的“民主天堂”,却也算得上富足安稳,尤其是民众的热情好客给我留下深刻印象。

但是,2003年美军占领伊拉克打破伊拉克的政治格局后,动乱一直延续,难民开始流入周边阿拉伯国家。2010年底地区大动荡爆发后,美国牵头欧洲国家借机推行“颜色革命”,用军事等多种手段干预利比亚等国局势,使动荡演变为战乱,进而为恐怖主义滋生和发展提供了土壤。一年多来,美国组建的多国部队虽不断对恐怖组织发动空袭,但效果不彰,教派纷争、民族矛盾和恐怖威胁相互交织,人道主义灾难不断加剧。因此人们寻找难民潮的源头时,自然就联想到西方在西亚北非地区自以为是的干预。

近年来,叙利亚周边国家已接纳了400多万难民,承担着巨大的压力。仅黎巴嫩就接纳了大约150万难民,超过其人口的1/3。正因为这些国家起到“蓄洪区”的作用,难民潮没有大规模地冲向欧洲。但战乱长期持续,中东地区多个国家民众生存也十分艰难,而难民危机愈发严重,才导致新一轮难民潮向近邻欧洲国家的外溢。在关注欧洲难民危机时,人们不应忘记中东地区国家的努力,包括他们面临的困难。

中东严峻的难民问题拷问国际社会的良知,人们不能不思考如何消除难民问题的根源,有针对性地采取行动,打破中东动荡不止的怪圈。历史上,中东曾是文明的摇篮,有着辉煌的历史,为人类社会的进步发展作出过重大贡献。但在冷战结束后,意识形态、文化价值领域成为超级大国竞争新高地。作为世界唯一超级大国的美国,更热衷于不断输出其“软实力”,对中东进行“民主改造”成为其政策取向。中东地区国家也确实有一些“精英”不顾本国的文化传统和国情,幻想全盘接受美式民主实现“升华”,但因“水土不服”导致一些国家深层次冲突。严酷的现实再次告诉人们,处理地区纠纷,域外国家可以提供帮助,但不应动辄干涉别国内政,更不应轻易将特定模式强加于人。

在这场考验欧洲的难民危机面前,人们更清晰地领悟到,当今世界在变小,人类的命运也相互连接得更加紧密。面对地区和国际性热点问题,没有哪个国家能够单独成功行动,也没有哪个国家能够独善其身,必须团结一致共同应对。

这场难民危机也在考验近代以来欧洲引以为豪的核心价值观。我们期盼欧洲国家探寻拓展难民正常合法进入欧洲的渠道,放宽在入境、家庭团聚、获取救助等方面的限制。

同时,各方应更加重视建设一个和平、宽容、自强的中东。解决难民危机问题,必须从源头上治理,政治解决叙利亚危机,恢复地区局势稳定,是根本之道。联合国正在为政治解决叙利亚危机进行积极斡旋,国际社会应共同支持联合国的努力,并为这一努力的成功积累共识,营造环境,创造条件。各方还需要帮助部分地区国家增强治理能力,加快发展经济,切实改善民生。唯有如此才能铲除恐怖主义滋生、蔓延的土壤,困扰欧洲和世界的难民危机也才能从根本上了结。

(作者为中国前中东问题特使)

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