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美军战舰南海走秀乏味 拖下去中国得分将高于美

2016-05-11 10:40:39   

美国“威廉·劳伦斯”号驱逐舰10日进入南海永暑礁附近挑衅,在现场遭到来自中方的警示,中国官方随即发出严正警告。美国单独一艘军舰构不成对我岛礁及设施太严重的威胁,但这是美方宣示其海上霸权的一个姿态。中美南海博弈继续大国间的游戏。

中国在南沙的岛礁建设已经取得长足进展,美方无力阻止,但试图通过增加其军舰的巡航、推动南海仲裁案以及加强盟友关系等削弱中国的战略成就,增加中方扩岛的代价。

南海仲裁案近期可能宣布“结果”,而菲律宾对华强硬的阿基诺三世也将下台,新当选的杜特尔特在南海问题上发出灵活的声调。菲律宾这张牌因这两个因素对中美都有不确定性,美方军舰这时前来示威,大概包括了华盛顿想争取主动的用意。

然而由于中美的行动处于“你打你的,我打我的”两条线,中国建岛,美舰走秀,只要双方不成心对撞,军事冲突的可能性暂时不大。这样拖下去,中国的得分将高于美国,因为岛礁建成了,中国的主动性有了强有力的支点。南海的地缘政治关系却并非一成不变,美方可以用来与中国周旋的最可靠力量还是它自己的军舰和飞机。

美国军舰一次次来,冲击力递减,慢慢就会变得没多大意思。中越、中菲双边关系似乎都过了双方因互不熟悉海上摩擦强度而最糟糕的时期。现在不太可预测的是南海仲裁案“结果”一旦出来后将对局势有多大破坏力,“威廉·劳伦斯”号驱逐舰其实抢不走多少镜头。

可以预期的是,它将带来更多针对中国的舆论压力,会被美日官方及西方媒体反复提及,但不会有什么实际后果。仲裁案提起国菲律宾对它的兴奋劲已经透支了很多,杜特尔特新政府对它的兴致尤其不高,菲越等很难针对它采取进一步实质行动。

中美大概都不会围绕南海博弈直接增添太多筹码,因为对方都不缺反制手段,那样做对双方都意味着更多资源消耗,因而未必有诱惑力。双方大概都会把更多工夫放在双方军队在海上短暂见面之外。

中美“外围战”首先在于竞争东盟的支持态度。总的来看,中美有限竞争符合东盟国家的利益,而一旦中美恶斗就会迫使地区内所有国家站队,将对它们的利益造成损害。东盟国家大多愿意在中美之间“搞平衡”,这是南海地缘政治业已形成的大逻辑,中美虽都不会放弃进一步的外交努力,但突破这个逻辑的空间并不大。

“外围战”最为实质的部分还在于中美各自支持南海博弈的后续力量建设。两国经济实力的消长,针对南海最坏情况的备战能力,以及两国全球外交的总形势,都将影响两国南海政策的坚定性。

如果南海最终固化为中美战略博弈的头号舞台,那将对中国更加有利。因为中国全社会将更加义无反顾,这场博弈将意味着中国周边主要问题和外交战略性问题的同时解决,对我们来说还是很值得的。但南海问题是美国历史性贪婪的一部分,美方的吃力感从一开始就会有,它早晚会将南海当成负担。

因此南海将是中国注意力长期的投入方向,我们不会轻松,但永远都能应付得了。在南海,我们与菲越之间是领土问题,与美国之间则是崛起国和守成国之间的战略对话。为了领土的完整,也为了民族复兴的权利,中国人不会在南海厌倦和懈怠。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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