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打好南海仲裁的反制“攻坚战”
梁 芳
菲律宾单方面提起的南海仲裁案审理工作快结束了,在中国缺席的情况下,裁决结果将在5-6月份宣布。针对美菲自编自演的南海仲裁闹剧,我国早在2013年2月19日就退回了菲律宾政府的照会及仲裁通知,声明不接受、不参与菲律宾提起的仲裁。南海形势发展正濒临新的爆发临界点,我将迎来更加艰难的“攻坚战”。
仲裁案是法律仗更是政治军事外交仗
仲裁案是一场法律仗,更是政治外交军事仗。美菲等操控仲裁庭,将原本中菲南沙岛礁领土主权和管辖海域划界的争端,精心包装成南沙有关岛礁依据《公约》“是否享有领海、专属经济区和大陆架”的纯粹法理问题。而仲裁庭为了强争管辖权,竟然罔顾中菲南海争端的真实情况,不从本质上探究本案的真实诉因,而将争端事项转化为《公约》条款的解释和适用范畴,偷梁换柱,明显背离了国际公平与正义。
此次仲裁一直受到美国的强力干预,美国甚至要求仲裁庭将仲裁结果出台时间大幅提前,美国一直指责中国“南海断续线”不符合国际法,高举“国际法大旗”,千方百计谋求打掉“南海断续线”。对此,我应跳出仲裁案,超越中菲双边关系和南海海域,放眼地区乃至更广范围内的多边国际关系,既关注裁决结果、更关注仲裁过程中的各方在政治外交军事领域的互动和博弈。
此次南海仲裁案的影响主要表现为以下几个方面:我南海“九段线”的法律效力会受到极大挑战;仲裁成为各方推进海上行为规则的契机,将影响各方在南海的海洋活动行为,各方会通过不同的途径和管道、采取各种方式方法,积极倡导并推进于己有利的海上行为规则;美国会利用仲裁案,加快推进“亚太再平衡”战略,强化美菲同盟关系、重拾美日澳印四边安全对话机制、企图打造亚太“多国海上联合编队”;各方在南海的博弈从经济、外交摩擦向军事争夺方向发展,南海争议中的军事因素和准军事因素将继续上升。
针对仲裁结果进行全方位的反制
可以说,仲裁最终裁决将成为新一轮斗争的开端,虽然我们对仲裁不接受、不参与,但这场斗争绕不开、躲不过。为此,我们应坚持战略上藐视、战术上重视,以我为主、积极斗争,有效维护我南海主权和海洋权益,实现我南海战略目标。为此,我应尽快进行全方位的反制:
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