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专家:萨德入韩对中国有重大威胁 可用多招打掉
2016-02-15 08:46:23 张亦驰 刘 扬
据韩联社2月11日报道,韩美两国表示将组建联合工作组,正式着手讨论向驻韩美军基地部署“萨德”系统事宜。专家指出,如果“萨德”系统最终得以入驻韩国,将是美军第一套部署在美国境外的完整“萨德”系统。尽管美国声称“萨德”反导系统是一套防御系统,但专家认为,作为反导系统,“萨德”打破的是地区战略平衡,对中国国家安全构成重大潜在威胁。
美韩评估三处候选地
韩联社报道称,美军驻扎的京畿道平泽、全罗北道群山、庆尚北道大邱被认为是部署“萨德”系统的候选地。报道称,针对有媒体称韩美两国因顾及中方的关切,研究在相对远离中国的庆尚北道部署“萨德”的说法,韩国国防部发言人文尚均表示,这并不属实,一切会从国家安全和国家利益出发来决定。“萨德”选址问题应当由韩美共同决定。
一名中国军事专家指出,从专业角度看,美韩部署“萨德”系统的选址需要考虑三重因素:首先考虑对战略目标形成有效防护。“萨德”系统的防护范围大致200公里,韩国重要战略目标应该位于这200公里保护伞下。而且“萨德”系统应该尽量靠近需要重点保卫的目标,这样拦截成功概率较大,且可创造二次拦截机会。其次,考虑部署地点海拔相对较高,视野开阔。特别是雷达的部署,这样可以尽早发现来袭导弹。第三考虑对周围环境以及对周边居民的影响。大功率的X波段高频雷达,可能会干扰部分同频率电子设备,并对近距离人员的身体产生影响。为了打消此顾虑,韩国国防部发言人文尚均在例行记者会上表示,“萨德”系统不会给半径100米之外的人体健康造成不利影响。文尚均说,一份环境影响评估报告显示,部署在关岛的“萨德”系统没有给方圆100米之外的人体、500米之外的电子设备、5.5公里外的飞机产生影响。
中国军事专家认为,如果从韩国的角度来考虑,部署在平泽是较好的选择。上述地点中,群山位于韩国中部西海岸地区,距离首尔180公里左右,距离首尔北端将近200公里,几乎达到了“萨德”系统的防护边缘;平泽市距离首尔70公里左右,位于群山东北部;大邱位于韩国东南部,距离首尔约250公里。部署在平泽市,防御的死角较小,除了南端和东南部大约一百公里的纵深无法保护以外,基本上覆盖整个韩国领土。群山次之,由于其靠近西海岸,其保护伞相当一部分都会覆盖到海上,东部和北部部分区域无法覆盖。最差是大邱,部署在这里,几乎无法保护首尔。不过部署“萨德”系统同样也是一个政治问题。平泽距离中国是最近的,这样其雷达对中方境内的探测区域会更大。
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