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澳媒:中美争夺注定爆发冲突?

2016-01-29 09:23:09   环球网

【环球军事报道】澳大利亚东亚论坛网站1月25日刊登题为《亚洲新的地缘政治》的文章称,许多人都在设法弄懂亚洲力量面貌的巨大变化对该地区当今的政治秩序稳定而言意味着什么。既有大国(特别是美国)以及新兴大国(最明显的是中国)在争夺政治空间时,注定会爆发不可避免的冲突吗?

表面看来,一场对亚洲霸权的争夺或许会在海和南海上的领土争端和其他紧张关系热点地区重新浮现。在一些人看来,中国和美国似乎正在亚太安全领域展开较量,在一场越来越危险的博弈中上演传统的大国政治戏码。比如,约翰·米尔斯海默认为,崛起中大国为了生存必须扩张,这通常会导致它们谋求地区霸权并挑起冲突。其他人则认为,国际稳定要视大国的数量以及它们之间的能力分布而定。根据这种观点,世界拥有多个权力中心将比仅拥有一两个权力中心更容易陷入不稳定和冲突,因此中国和美国或许可以做休·怀特认为它们必须做的事,那就是搞清楚它们可以扮演的彼此兼容的地区角色。

文章称,经济实力的增强以及该地区投射政治和军事力量的潜力(尽管日本迄今的历程说明这一点并非不可避免)将亚洲猛然推上了不断变化的全球大国政治的舞台中央。

但是,亚洲的经济和政治转变是否不可避免地预示着亚洲将被竞争各方瓜分为大国的封地?那种被误以为是对该地区地缘政治安全考量的理论大体是这样认为的。

中国银监会顾问沈联涛说,过去的一年在亚太地区将被铭记为朝着一种更多极的经济和政治秩序混乱转变的一年。“美国不能再独自决定全球命运,而是将必须与盟友和对手分享权力,而地区大国将发现自己面临自身挑战的威胁。”

沈联涛说,有四股彼此交织的力量凸显出权力分享、合作与适应的必要性,它们是:地缘政治、地缘金融、技术与气候变化。在地缘政治层面,美国在2011年提出的转向亚洲政策将南海辟为紧张关系的新前线,甚至在美国完成从中东撤军前就是这样了。当中国向周边投射力量时,管理南海上相互竞争的利益在未来将是棘手的。沈说,地区大国的崛起意味着地缘政治争端的风险提高了,就像南海目前的状况那样。“地区经济危机、普遍技术转变以及气候变化的可能性是三个紧迫的问题,它们是一个衰落中的霸权国家无法再独自解决的,而是需要相关国家的合作。

美国著名学者阿查里雅说,安全多元主义是亚洲新政治秩序的特征。安全多元主义并不是一种单纯的均势制度;它还依赖其他机制。安全多元主义“提倡实力不对等和文化各异的国家之间相互适应,这保留了每个国家的相对自治并阻止了任何一个国家或几个国家的霸权……(并且)尊重了政治和文化多样性,它提倡大国之间相互适应,并促使它们对较弱小国家(比如东南亚国家联盟成员)奉行克制政策。”

阿查里雅说,这是对我们当今所处亚洲的一种更好的描述,比那种硬把亚洲塞进大国政治的紧身衣中的描述要好。如果果真如此,那你必须同意他的如下观点,即亚洲进行机构重组和创新的时机已经成熟。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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