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中国成唯一能与美国抗衡国家

2016-01-22 08:44:13   环球网

【环球军事报道】美国国际战略研究中心(CSIS)周二发布报告称,亚洲力量均势的不断变化不利于美国。俄罗斯专家瓦西里 卡申向1月21日在“卫星网”发表评论称,报告得出的结论完全是当前局势的真实写照,需认真对待。

这里指的不是中美两个大国之间力量平衡的改变,总体来说,美国还将在很长一段时间内对华保持军事优势。但显然,中国强化军力的脚步明显快于美国重新平衡在亚太力量。2010年以来,中国人民解放军的作战实力有了质和量的双重飞跃,而美国在亚太军力却未见明显进步。美国关键盟友日本和韩国等国的军事实力也在提升,但并非根本性增长。

美国仍然无法走出叙利亚和伊拉克的军事危机泥潭,无法推卸乌克兰危机爆发后对中东欧国家承担的额外军事责任。依照美国的计划,作为唯一的超级大国,它还须在世界其他地方摆脱不断恶化的局势,包括成为IS新战线的北非。美国的海湾伙伴在也门陷入持久战。阿富汗官方政府正面临来自IS和塔利班的双重威胁。

此外,西欧形势也很复杂。欧盟在安全问题上的无力和无助已然显现。任何涉及欧洲安全的严重危机迟早都需美国军方和情报部门出面干预,美国对欧盟难民潮来源地事务的参与度将只增不减。

尽管中国位于东亚,但它是唯一一个原则上能与美国在全球范围内进行经济和政治抗衡的国家,该地区目前看来相对稳定。美国被自己在世界各地的政策弄得乱七八糟,陷入窘境,如今不但不能与中国保持必要的力量均势,未来或许还会丧失对地区危机做出有效反应的能力。

美国陷入一系列前景全无、旷日持久的冲突当中无法自拔,使得中国有机会逐步加强自己在东亚的军事和经济地位。也许未来东亚各国将不得不接受新的力量均势。

朝鲜进行导弹核试验及在军事领域采取的其他举措妨碍中国逐步加强在亚太地区的地位。美国则采取具体措施,在东北亚部署反导系统,加强与日韩联盟,以应对来自朝鲜的直接导弹威胁与核威胁。

但与此同时,朝鲜将在破坏和削弱美国在亚洲政策方面发挥更大作用。美国已穷尽所有可对朝鲜施加有效影响的办法。目前只有中国能够利用非军事手段影响朝鲜政策,例如暂停采购朝鲜商品(如煤炭),停止对朝供应重要产品。但北京不可能迈出这一步,因为扼杀朝鲜经济会破坏其自身安全。与此同时,据各方消息,朝鲜正逐步改善经济状况,在军事建设领域取得显著成果。美国对朝政策同样即将走进死胡同,也许有一天在美国盟友看来,这一政策将不再是解决问题的办法,而是问题本身。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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