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美专家:中国领导人不傻 美驻军不冲中国又是什么

2014-08-06 13:42:57   环球网

【环球军事报道】香港中美聚焦网8月5日文章,原题:美中关系:分清主次,做出选择

美国面临日益复杂的挑战。伊拉克陷入极端分子引起的灾难,叙利亚内战愈演愈烈,俄罗斯支持乌克兰分裂势力。华盛顿的政策处处失灵。

而在对华关系上,奥巴马政府有一点进步,但还不够好。两国没有公开冲突,但分歧仍然很大。美中这样的大国存在分歧,是自然而然的事,但两国必须着手解决。不幸的是,美国提要求的本事比商量解决方案的本事高得多。特别是华盛顿似乎忽视了多个问题之间的联系性,(美国)在某个问题上的立场可能影响(中国)对其他问题的反应。

比如美国的“亚洲转向”。华盛顿令人难以置信地声称,“转向”与中国无关。但中国领导人不傻。美国在北京的后院加强军事联盟和扩大驻军,(不冲着中国)又能出于什么原因?

但与此同时,奥巴马政府又催中国加大对朝鲜的压力。朝鲜跟其他国家并无“亲密关系”,大多数能源、粮食及绝大多数外来投资也都依赖中国。美国的行为就好像是求中国帮一个小忙。事实上,没人知道朝鲜会如何反应。试图胁迫平壤将令中国与其唯一地区“盟友”的关系陷入危险。

奥巴马政府试图缓和地区领土争端的做法存在同样的问题。美国与包括日本在内的几个利益方维持防务关系和驻军。华盛顿呼吁和平解决分歧固然理由充分,但实际上,美国的所作所为是支持现状——而现状是有利于美国的朋友和盟友的。

其他问题也不能被单独考虑。美国施压北京,促其尊重反对中共的政治活动。这种做法的威胁可能被视为不亚于美国的军事动作。一个试图在中国周边维持自己地缘政治特权的国家却对中国大谈价值观和人权。

此外,美国试图说服北京限制能源使用以应对气候变化。这种做法放在华盛顿试图抑制中国影响力的背景下来看更显用心险恶。在更大的地缘政治斗争面前,“必要的牺牲”的说辞让人难以相信。

在外交中,紧迫事项往往压倒重要事项。乌克兰和叙利亚冲突是当前头等大事。但长远来看,乌克兰和叙利亚如何,对美国并不重要,更别说至关重要了。而与中国——世界第二大经济体和潜在的军事超级大国——的关系显然重要得多。

分歧和误解不可避免,但两国必须管控争议。这样做就需要认识到,问题是互相关联的。特别是,美国必须接受“交易”的必然性。如果美国希望说服中国接受看似有违其自身地缘政治利益的政策——比如牺牲朝鲜的利益——就不能让人觉得美国是在领导反华联盟。▲(作者道格·班多,美国卡托研究所高级研究员,乔恒译)

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