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近50年,我国高温热浪在不断增加(图)

2017-08-02 08:52:56   北京日报

南方的高温天气主要是由于副热带高压控制,以晴热少雨天气为主,白天受太阳短波辐射的影响,地面温度会逐步上升。同时,在高压控制区盛行下沉气流,形成一定的下沉增温效应。在辐射增温和下沉增温的综合作用下,就会导致高温天气的出现。北方出现的高温天气是由于受大陆暖高压控制,天气晴朗,太阳辐射强,高空盛行下沉气流,白天地表升温快。

华北地区高温热浪天气主要集中出现在6、7月份,占高温天气的90%;华东地区高温天气主要集中在7、8月份,以7月中旬出现频率最大;华中、华南和西南地区主要集中在7、8月份,分别占高温天气总频数的85%、78%和80%。

高温天气以增多为主

东南及中西部增加显著

最近50多年,在气候变化的背景下,我国的高温天气是如何变化的?

图11960-2013年间夏季高温日数的变化趋势(单位:天/10年)

图21991-2000年(绿色)和2001-2010年(紫色)期间由各类气象灾害造成的伤亡率及其增长率。图片来自2013年世界气象组织(WMO)发布的《全球气候2001-2010,十年气候极端事件》报告。

中国整体夏季平均高温天气以增多为主(图1),尤其在我国东南地区以及中西部地区增加最为显著。

高温天气减少的地区则主要集中在华北部分地区,可能原因主要归结为两个方面。其一是该区域气溶胶的增加,大多数的气溶胶将太阳辐射反射回外部空间而具有冷却作用,以此会导致高温天气的减少;其二,该冷却趋势与平流层温度变化以及对流层和平流层的相互作用有关,对流层中上层存在正的温度梯度以及东亚夏季风增强,导致在华北地区云量增加,不利于高温天气的发生。

中国整体的夏季高温日数从1960-2012年在波动中呈现明显的增加趋势。三个高温天气的频发区域:新疆地区、东南地区和川渝地区,夏季高温天气显著增加,每十年分别增加0.92、1.70和1.80天。三个典型区域夏季平均高温天气的年变化存在各自的区域特征,总体均表现为先减少后增加的趋势。从20世纪60年代到20世纪80年代末,高温日数波动式略减;从20世纪90年代开始,高温日数稳步上升,增加较为显著。

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