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新华社五问延迟退休:能解决社保基金缺口问题吗?

2016-03-05 06:47:44   新华网

二问:是否会挤占就业岗位?

目前,全国每年毕业700多万名大学生,去产能也涉及百万人安置问题。有人担忧,延迟退休与去产能可能对就业产生多向挤压,导致就业岗位大量减少。

清华大学教授杨燕绥表示,延迟退休和减少就业岗位不是简单线性替代关系。目前,我国经济结构、就业结构、企业结构都处在转型过程中,延迟退休带来的就业压力能够通过结构性转移就业缓解。例如,在与老人、儿童相关的服务业领域仍有上千万岗位的缺口。

人社部劳动科学研究所研究员张丽宾表示,按照小步慢走、渐进到位、区别对待、分步实施的原则,如果延迟退休2021年从女职工开始实施,据测算,影响的就业岗位数当年为77万个左右,2037年为171万个左右,2050年末为175万个左右。在这一长期的过程中,我国人口结构会有很大的改变,延迟退休对我国就业冲击有限,不必过分担心。

金维刚表示,延迟退休实施后可能会对灵活就业人员、企业效益不好的员工和长期下岗失业人员等群体产生一定影响。全国政协委员朴惠善等一些代表委员提出,在机关事业单位,若不相应增加编制和职数,年轻人在晋升等方面可能受到直接影响,需要研究解决办法。

三问:社保费率会降吗?

有观点认为,延迟退休意味着企业和个人的社保支出总量将继续增加,不利于企业减负和释放生产力。随着延迟退休,社保费率能否下降受到关注。

尹蔚民表示,如果能够顺利完成推行全民参保计划、推进养老保险全国统筹、推进养老保险基金投资运营等,在确保发放养老金的前提下可以适当降低社保费率。

一位在基层政府工作的人大代表建议,可以把社保费率下降作为延迟退休的配套政策,同步推出。

四问:能解决社保基金缺口问题吗?

有观点认为,延迟退休政策推出的一个重要目的,是应对养老金收不抵支的缺口。2011年养老金收不抵支的省份有14个,2012年为19个。日前,人社部表示,去年收不抵支省份为7个,数量有所减少,且都有累计结余。而全国养老保险基金2015年总收入2.7万亿元,支出2.3万亿元。

褚福灵表示,延迟退休后职工缴费年限延长,对于养老保险基金运转总体肯定利好,养老金水平也会相应提高。

此外,有研究显示,退休年龄每延迟一年,养老统筹基金可增长40亿元,减支160亿元,减缓基金缺口200亿元。

五问:劳动者意愿不同能否实行“弹性选择”?

一些工会界政协委员表示,延迟退休牵涉广泛,建议循序渐进,针对不同行业、不同部门有一定的差异性和灵活度,为劳动者设置弹性空间。国务院发展研究中心公共管理与人力资源研究所副所长李兰说,要在区别对待、分步实施的情况下,提前公示,做好意见征集,可考虑充分尊重大家合理的个人选择。

有人大代表表示,延迟退休不仅仅是“多劳动几年”的问题,应该统筹考虑国家社保体系的完善。

朴惠善建议:“在延迟退休的同时,应相应增加岗位配置等指标,让年轻人看到希望,让‘老人’更安心地工作。”(记者乌梦达、徐博、李劲峰、翟永冠、刘硕)

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