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中美贸易战升级意外殃及日本 日或陷经济“大萧条”

2018-08-14 10:17:06    海外网

原标题:贸易摩擦冲击日本或现经济“大萧条”

自2016年中期起,全球经济终于摆脱了2008年金融危机带来的“阴霾”,开始进入稳步上升通道。但美国单方面挑起贸易战,又给世界其他国家的经济发展增添了诸多不确定性。

2018年上半年,日本的经济增长不尽人意。第一季度GDP在去除物价变动因素后环比下滑0.2%,换算成年率为下滑0.6%,日本经济九个季度以来首次呈现负增长。尽管目前第二季度的增长数据尚未公布,但从日本内阁府刚公布的月例经济报告看,情况不容乐观。若再出现一个季度的萎缩,则将符合经济衰退的技术性定义。

日本上半年经济减速的原因主要是消费和投资不足,只有外贸情况可圈可点。日本财务省发布的2018年1~6月贸易统计数据显示,日本出口额同比增长6.2%,达40.1305亿日元,连续2年高于上一年同期。除此之外,日本已与欧盟签署了日欧经济合作协定(EPA)。可以说,外贸将会是2018年乃至2019年日本经济增长的主要动力。然而,日本外贸能否延续上半年的增长势头仍是一个未知数,美国挑起的贸易摩擦正加大日本外贸下行的风险,而且大有扩大之势。

美国挑起的贸易摩擦对日本外贸的冲击主要体现在两个方面:

一是对日本直接加征关税。我们知道,2018年3月份开始,美国对进口的钢铁和铝制品全面加征25%和10%的关税,日本的钢铁和铝制品出口虽然在美国进口中的占比仅为4.9%,但也使日本约450亿日元的出口产品面临困境。据统计,受美国加征关税的影响,6月日本对美国的钢铁出口额同比下降了17.2%,为2017年7月以来的最大同比降幅,出口量同比下降32.3%,为三个月来最大跌幅。出于对美国贸易保护主义的担忧,日本6月份对美国的出口17个月来首次出现同比下降0.9%。此外,美国还以国家安全为由启动了对进口汽车和配件的调查,并威胁对进口汽车及配件加征20%-25%的关税。2017年日本对美国出口汽车170万辆,如果美国加征关税,对日本汽车厂商的冲击是可想而知的。

二是受中美贸易摩擦升级的间接影响。当前,美国对华贸易战已正式拉开序幕。中美经贸关系是全球供应链的重要组成部分,在全球化深度发展的今天,中美发生贸易摩擦,任何国家均不能独善其身。虽说美国挑起贸易摩擦只涉及中美两国的部分出口产品,但已损害两国生产者和消费者的利益,也将伤及世界各国产业界和消费者的利益。据统计,2017年中国对美出口4298亿美元中,外资企业占54.2%;在美国对华征税的340亿美元出口产品中,超过200亿美元的产品源自在华跨国公司,占比接近60%。目前,日本在华的跨国企业超过两万家,被征税的很多产品是日本在华企业生产的。除了在华的日资企业外,在他国的日本跨国公司及在本国参与全球产业链和价值链生产的一般企业也将受到严重影响。这是因为在中国出口美国的商品中,还包括许多进口自他国的中间产品。在日本国内生产的很多产品,如芯片和电子元器件等高附加值的中间产品出口到中国,参与到全球价值链的前端生产过程中。因此,在中国被征税的输美产品中,也包含了很多进口自日本或日本跨国公司生产的中间产品。如果中美贸易摩擦升级,必将“殃及池鱼”。

可见,日本的外贸不仅将直接受到美国对日本进口产品加征关税的影响,也会因为日本深度参与全球化,深度参与全球产业链中,而受到中美贸易摩擦的深刻影响。一旦美国挑起的全球贸易摩擦和升级,日本外贸对经济的拉动作用也会大打折扣,甚至可能打断日本经济复苏的步伐,将日本经济拖入新一轮的“大萧条”。

(倪月菊,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员)


责任编辑:费琪 CN001、刘敏丹 CN012
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