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趁朝鲜搞核武器,日本也想浑水摸鱼!

2017-09-19 14:05:21   瞭望智库

当然这句话需要更正:不是其他国家都可以,而是除了中、俄、美、英、法五国之外,其他都不可以。根据1968年签署、1970年生效的《不扩散核武器条约》,只有在1967年1月1日前拥有核武器的国家才是合法拥有核武器国家,其他任何国家发展核武器拥有核武器都是不合法的。

2

库叔:朝鲜核力量是如何逐步发展起来的?就目前而言朝鲜导弹和核武发展水平如何?

杨承军:导弹武器和核武器是两个东西。

朝鲜导弹武器的发展和起步是从1962年开始的。1962年他引进了苏联的萨姆2导弹,后来又引进了飞毛腿液体战术导弹,朝鲜液体导弹发动机技术从那时候开始起步。后来朝鲜又在从埃及和伊拉克引进战术导弹的基础上,研制发展了火星系列导弹。

目前,朝鲜现役的导弹有3000多枚,但是可靠性不高。

由于朝鲜导弹都是引进仿制的,为了提高射程,朝鲜把导弹加长加粗,增加推进剂容量,使得射程更远。但是这就改变了导弹的长细比,改变导弹在飞行过程当中受到的大气各种压力的影响和干扰,造成导弹在飞行中容易折断,这也是朝鲜导弹发射成功概率不超过50%的重要原因之一。

另外,从技术上而言朝鲜导弹整体上比较落后,工艺制造还比较粗糙。我们从曝光的一些电视画面里可以看到很多制造工艺连接部位都是很粗糙的,包括铆钉痕迹都看得很清楚。

朝鲜2003年宣布退出《不扩散核武器条约》,2005年就宣布拥有核武器了。从2006年开始他搞了第一次核试验,一直到2017年的9月3号共计进行了六次核试验。从核试验情况来看,朝鲜已经拥有了氢弹,虽然它的威力很小。

目前朝鲜核武器还没有实现武器化。我们知道1945年美国对日本使用核武器,是采用飞机投掷的。而朝鲜六次核试验都是在地下坑道里引爆的,就像我们小时候放炮仗一样,拿个东西去点,它是用电启动去引爆。朝鲜不仅没有解决导弹运载的问题,也没有试验过用飞机去投掷,所以朝鲜的核弹头目前为止还没有武器化。

金正恩多次声称朝鲜导弹已经达到了洲际射程,我认为目前为止朝鲜导弹仍然没有达到洲际甚至远程,他没达到这个标准。要按照国际的标准,1000公里以下的射程称为近程,1000到5000称为中程,5000到8000是远程,8000以上才为洲际。但是金正恩他的标准5000就是洲际。实际朝鲜导弹打的最远的距离就3000多公里,就是达到全射程也是4000多公里,仍然是在中程的范围里头,所以我的这个结论是,朝鲜还没有具备打击美国本土的能力。

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