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分析:若中印爆发战争 印度将攻击中国海上贸易通道

2017-08-23 08:41:08   瞭望智库

印度半岛直指印度洋中央,东扼孟加拉湾、西指波斯湾,海洋地缘条件十分优越,只要稍微利用下便利的地缘条件,印度就能成为印度洋的重要战略玩家。

与中国类似,印度历史上因为海权的弱小而遭遇过西方列强入侵,正所谓“吃一堑长一智”,在国力强大之后大力发展海权是顺理成章的事情。印度前总理拉吉夫·甘地曾公开宣称:印度应在控制印度洋五大海峡的基础上,继而“控制从地中海到太平洋之间的广袤海域”。

(注:印度洋五大海峡一般指霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡、保克海峡、巽他海峡、马六甲海峡。)

印度洋地理位置(网络资料)

具体到印度海权与中国的关系,印度军方和不少知名学者都认为,印度可以通过印度洋的海上优势弥补印度在面对中国时的陆上劣势。

2,封锁:破坏中国海上交通线

破坏中国海上交通线的论调在印度有一定基础。

2004年,印度国防部发布的海军作战指针强调,印度处在“一个能对印度洋海上运输和安全发挥重要影响的地位,印度海军控制战略要点就能够对国际竞争中的讨价还价发挥作用,必要时候,使用军事力量依然是无法回避的事实”。

印度前外交秘书拉吉夫·西克里(Rajiv Sikri)认为,“印度海军在印度洋更强大的存在,可以增加中国的海上脆弱性,因而在某种程度上可以抵消中国在陆地、空中和太空对印度所拥有的优势。”

这意味着,如果中印在北部陆地边界发生大规模冲突,印度就有可能在印度洋上对中国赖以生存的海上交通线采取行动,对中国进行报复、反制和威慑。

必须承认的是,印度确实有着这个条件和能力——

印度扼守着中国西进的通道,随时都可以对中国海上交通线构成重大威胁,中国西向航线上的商船,基本上都位于印度海空和导弹兵力的有效作战半径之内。

不仅如此,印度还在安达曼-尼科巴群岛上有军力部署,直接扼守着从马六甲海峡进入印度洋的“北纬10度航道”及“格雷特航道”。

这种战略思路看起来很美,但是要实施起来却面临着诸多困难。

首先,中印国力悬殊,印度在两国的总体战略较量中处于劣势。

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