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印欲对中国发动战争?缺的不只是弹药更缺的是民意

2017-08-21 08:29:09   瞭望智库

  • 竞选上台的政治需要。有个强大的邻国,时不时讲讲对他的反抗和斗争,打打民族独立和爱国主义的牌,确实是各党竞选时很好的素材,而中国具备这个假想敌的几乎所有条件。同时,对怒中国,某些“友邦”自然鼓励,这当然也是不能说的利益所在。

  • 博取经济利益的招数。一般来讲,边境的几个邦都比较穷,靠中央财政补贴吃饭的多,加上军方战时常备的理论支持,所以在印度时不时的就会出现边境中方又加压力的报道,在博取眼球的同时,既是边界地方部队要钱,政府要资助的手段,更是利益相关方屡试不爽的惯常招数。

  • 虽然BJP的莫迪上台以后,为吸引外资做了很多努力,但从其过去几年的施政路数来看,感觉更像是“”声东而求西“”,即以与中国合作为虚,以抗衡中国为实,穿梭大国间的外交中,倾向性很明显。莫迪善于利用中国打自己的牌,对外,可以引来欧美日和俄罗斯等大国的关注支持,与中国展开投资竞赛,技术转移比拼;对内,则随时可以用爱国主义转移内部的改革矛盾,让国内经济低迷、失业率高企、党派纷争、改革推进艰难等等消之于一腔爱国热血和同仇敌忾。

    自从莫迪上台后,一直加强边境地区基础设施建设。从之前的报道看,先是投资建设边境全线电子监视网络,今年又将边境地区高速公路建设和升级改造纳入预算,冷战思维悄然显现。前一阵子的5月末,莫迪为靠近印中边界的多拉-萨迪亚大桥揭幕。这座总长9.15公里的大桥是印度目前最长的桥梁,据说能将从印度东北部阿萨姆邦到“阿鲁纳恰尔邦”(即中国藏南地区)的行程缩短7至8个小时,本地媒体说,印度用自己的方式告诉中国离远点。如果说到改变现状,这也算是其中之一吧。在外联方面,莫迪这几年出访频频,着力拉近南亚诸国,强势安排印度洋岛国,积极拉拢非洲国家,加强与合围岛链相关国家的军政联系,无不显示其谋篇布局背后的更深动机。

    在印度,每天的报纸一般都会有来自中国的报道,经济政治文化军事,负面消极的消息多,正面积极的消息少,猜疑泛酸搅和的文章多,理性平和合作的文章少。发行量巨大的Times of India,中国的报道很多出现在其nation版,而不是在主要评论其他国家地区的world版,且常以威胁批判为基调,足见其非理性的重视。在内容方面,西藏问题、边境问题和中国威胁总是热点,去年以来的中国反对其加入NSG和针对联合国恐怖组织清单等事项一直被热炒,意图是说中国阻止了印度的发展道路。而“一带一路”在印度官方媒体的眼里更是取其印度洋霸权的“眼中钉”、“肉中刺”,讨论之余牵出的主流解决方案都是遏制中国。这次的对峙,更有媒体说,中国是因为担心被印度超越,所以要武力阻止,这里面逻辑混乱的让人想起那句玩笑话,数学一定是体育老师教的。

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