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央视评论:特朗普对华贸易上搞事情 会出大事吗

2017-08-15 20:44:26   央视新闻

单边贸易战对世界经济不负责任

中美之间拥有巨大的贸易量,双边经贸的健康发展是全球经贸的稳定之锚。美国将经贸问题与政治问题乃至安全问题挂钩,全球最大的两个经济体之间一旦发生贸易龃龉,那么不会有任何赢家。且不说中美的经济会受到多大影响,供应链依赖于两国的经济体都会受到波及,从这个角度看,如果美国单边轻启贸易战无疑是一种对世界各国都不负责任的行为。

尤其是世界经济好不容易才从金融风暴的打击下取得缓慢复苏,而且基础仍不牢固,不确定性依然存在。在这样的背景下,如果美国对中国发起301调查,这种“搞事情”的行径有可能会成为影响世界经济前景的“大事情”。

“大棒”落下只有共损难求共赢

此外,美国本身从与中国的贸易中收益良多,这种互补的结构一旦被以政治为诱因的贸易战所打破,那么美国商界和消费者都会感受到切肤之痛。

特朗普上台后一直秉承经济民族主义,无论是退出TPP还是重谈北美自贸协定,都给别国造成了不小的影响。把国内政治国际化、政治问题经贸化,都说明特朗普在下一局大棋。但从对中国威胁打贸易战来看他未必是名好棋手,启动调查更远说不上是一步妙招。

当然,特朗普指示美国贸易代表发起调查只是程序的第一步,距离最终兑现301调查承诺还有很长的距离。回顾历史可以发现,美国已经不是第一次对中国挥动“301大棒”,但挥动者也始终明白当棒子真要落下,那么自身也会第一时间感到疼。而且中国的报复措施会给美国的机械、电子以及农产品等部门造成二次打击。

由于中美间经济相互依存程度高,因此各界普遍认为全面开打贸易战的几率并不高。对于中国来说,在战术上重视,在战略上藐视是应有之意。既要做好与美国打专利战乃至贸易战的准备,又不会放松一些可能的沟通渠道,继续争取双赢。中美之间的问题最终还是要回归谈判桌,这才是解决问题的办法。我们不惹事,但也决不怕事,做好了准备才最有可能将美国拉回谈判桌。

特朗普搞事情,希望最终不会成为大事情。

文丨央视特约评论撰稿王亚宏

责任编辑:李皓 CN002
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