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特朗普的对外政策将是不确定性相对最高的领域,中美关系、俄美关系如何走将牵动国际关系的全局。从竞选中透出的特朗普外交理念看,他有可能更突出美国的经济利益,从而使中美关系的焦点从地缘政治博弈向经济利益冲突偏移。
新美国总统缺少外交经验,是商人出身,商业规则和案例带给他的经验积累大概会渗透进美国的对外政策中。中美关系或许会增加讨价还价的戏码,一些关键的利益纷争会很尖锐,但特朗普对中美新型大国关系的兴趣应当高于深受希拉里外交思想影响的奥巴马,他对“共赢”的抵触说不定会小于美国传统政治精英们。
不过,特朗普即使为了讨好对他充满厌恶的美国政治精英群体,也不会制造他对中国“不够强硬”的印象。未来中美关系不能押在他的个性上,维护中国的利益,最终靠的是我们自己的实力。特朗普如果要拿中美经济关系开刀,为美方挤榨不合理的更多好处,那么他就需要掂量中国会怎么反制,会让美国反过来失去什么。
最后我们想说,这场大选会对美国形成链条很长的触动,进而影响外部世界。中国树大招风,但中国也是应变力最强的国家之一。今天的中国因应美国总统更迭,既有充分的经验,也有充足的力量。
责任编辑:周晶晶 CN032
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