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印巴在中印对峙下交火,是为哪般?

2017-07-11 13:22:29   央视新闻

克什米尔地区对印巴双方具有重要战略意义

由于地理特点,克什米尔地区对印巴双方都具有重要的战略意义。对巴方而言,如果印度完全控制克什米尔,巴基斯坦的核心利益将受到严重损害;对印度而言,如果巴基斯坦完全控制克什米尔,印度西北部也将“无险可守”,包括新德里在内的纵深平原地区均将失去屏障。

正因为如此,印巴双方在克什米尔争夺激烈,前后已爆发过两次战争。双方在2003年达成现行停火协议后,在停火线形成长期重兵对峙局面。沿着这条对峙界线,已经发生过多次小规模摩擦。关于历次摩擦与冲突的起因,多形成双方相互指责之势。

△印控克什米尔地区,戴着面具的抗议者朝当地的警察抛掷石块

印巴交火助推南亚地区紧张局势

此次印巴两军的交火事件究竟是谁引发,目前尚难以清晰确认。但外界能够清楚的是:8日早上两军进行了互射,各有人员伤亡,巴方伤亡人员为平民;9日,巴军向印军进行报复性炮击,摧毁了印方的两处哨所,并声称打死4名印军士兵。类似这样的交火事件,与此前案例极为相似。严格意义而言,大量部队云集高原冰川地区,并在紧张局势下长期对峙,出现意外摩擦几乎是必然结果。

此次交火与过去不同之处在于近期的地区局势背景。由于南亚地区近期紧张局势升级,印巴之间的交火,无疑构成了推动局势的又一个因素,其背景超越了克什米尔问题本身,涉及到印巴之间的整体博弈,乃至于整个南亚次大陆的格局发展。

印度虽有称雄之心却无相应实力

进入本世纪后,印巴双边关系总体保持稳定,未发生过大规模的武装冲突。但是,印度仍有在南亚次大陆“称雄”之心,因此其外交和军事动作整体上呈现出“强势”和“攻势”的特点。而且,印度的眼光并不仅限于陆地,还希望真正控制整个印度洋,掌控亚欧之间、东亚与中东非洲之间的联络通道,全面提升自身在国际社会的话语权。这与其希望成为联合国安理会常任理事国的目标也是想配套的。

在如此战略思维的指导之下,印度对周边地区四处伸手,也成为了一种必然。印度军方最近声称要打“2.5场战争”,这不仅体现了其将周边多个国家作为明确假想敌的心态,也体现了其对于自身能力认知的缺陷。

△资料图:印度边防部队士兵

印度虽有称雄之心,却无相应的实力。近年来,印度经济发展增速明显放缓,其国内经济社会发展问题多多,其东北部的独立运动和武装反抗也有抬头之势。作为一个没有经历过革命和社会改革的新兴国家,印度原本应该抓住世界经济发展的外部机遇,在国内推行大规模改革,真正将国家推上工业化道路,但目前看,印度似乎还要在旧的套路里走下去。

至于克什米尔问题,今后可能还会持续目前的紧张对峙局面。对于印度而言,如果其将其它方向作为首要目标,克什米尔将成为时刻在背的那根“芒刺”。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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