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中越应当把两国政治制度相同作为解决海上纠纷的优势,如果这个优势不释放出来的话,它就有可能发生转化,增加两国冲突的烈度和持久度。中菲在阿基诺三世时期关系非常紧张,杜特尔特一上台,矛盾迅速缓解。中越都是共产党长期执政的国家,中菲的那种情况不会在中越之间发生。
望河内在下决心采取某个行动和计算美日对它的支持时好好想一想,如果它“无法对中方让步”的话,那么中方又有什么理由和条件对越方做让步呢?如果越方可以“不惜代价”的话,中方又何以可能顾忌某个代价呢?
美日决不会在关键时刻为越南“两肋插刀”的。在小国与大国相互利用的戏码中,大国的利益永远处于主导地位,换句话说,越南需要为美日的利益“两肋插刀”才对。
越南应当清楚一个基本的道理:它要想在一个中越争议领域强行“夺走”什么,是不可能做到的。它也不应该以为,中国要开十九大了,这个时候北京最看重稳定,对它有可能“让着点”。河内需要以平常心,也就是世间的常识来评估中越的纷争。
“南海行为准则”框架已经出台,还是让中越的纠纷有序解决吧。中国不会恃强,越南切莫冒险。为了南海的长久和平与稳定,中越两党两国有必要相向而行。
责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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