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台媒:蔡英文若放弃南海 解放军或接收太平岛

2016-07-10 13:50:06   观察者网

吴士存预测,仲裁结果出炉后,蔡英文政府可能发表“不痛不痒”的声明,甚至可能放弃对整个南海诸岛的声索,退到守住太平岛、东沙群岛。吴士存强调,蔡英文可能向美国、日本靠拢,而为了“去大陆化”的“新南向政策”,也可能和东协有关声索国立场保持接近。

他还强调,需要观察蔡英文真正的政治意图为何,如果可视为向“台独”方向迈进的话,那可能就挑战到大陆在南海问题上要对台湾划定的底线或红线。若蔡英文放弃“十一段线”主张,“就视为她是为未来‘法理台独’迈出的一小步,或者说重要的一步”。

近日,吴士存接受台湾《中国时报》采访时再次强调,若蔡英文放弃台湾所谓“十一段线”主张,那很有可能被大陆视为往“法理台独”靠拢,届时两岸关系势必会继续恶化下去。

若台放弃太平岛,大陆或接收

早在2014年,国民党前“立委”邱毅便指出台湾当局坚持“十一段线”的重要性。彼时,邱毅投书《环球时报》,强调如果台湾坚持“九段线”的主张,表明当初划“十一段线”的理由,并提供完整的相关档案文件,对此争议的厘清就大有帮助,更显示两岸联手在法律战与舆论战共抗外敌。反之,若台湾表态否定或放弃“九段线”主张,则对大陆很不利,对两岸和平发展也将投下重伤害性的震撼弹。

近期,邱毅接受香港中评社采访时,将蔡英文的南海政策与马英九的南海政策进行对比。他表示,马英九对南海态度是明确的、积极的、坚定的,相对蔡英文是消极的、模糊的、低调的。就细节而言,马英九对南海是坚守国民政府时期的“十一段段线”,就是大陆现在的“九段线”,可是蔡英文从来不谈“十一段段线”或“九段线”的问题,只谈国际法,只谈这个争端必需通过多边体制来解决。

邱毅警告,一旦仲裁结果不利于中国大陆,就是蔡英文放弃“南海主权”且以租借的方式让美军进占太平岛最佳的时机。

对于邱毅的说法,《旺报》援引大陆涉台人士指出,北京非常重视蔡英文政府对仲裁案结果的表态,届时蔡英文政府若放弃“南海主权”,甚至将太平岛租借美军使用,北京不排除以国家领土完整为由,派遣解放军前去接收。

该人士还指出,尽管蔡英文在“520”就职演说中提及主张南海问题应“搁置争议、共同开发”,但自蔡英文上台后,两岸官方交流已全数中断,尤其在双方缺乏联系的情况下,北京对蔡英文的南海问题主张一直不敢掉以轻心,对蔡英文届时的表态也予以高度关注。

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