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厉害的小金属:元素周期表背后的“藏宝图”

2017-09-18 07:46:41   中国经济网

6月1日至8月31日,沪铜期货上涨16.5%;沪铝期货上涨20%,沪锌期货涨16.9%,沪镍期货累计上涨约28.4%,沪铅期货同期累计上涨21.7%,沪锡期货表现最为惊艳,本轮涨势始于2015年12月,期间一度收出月线八连阳,迄今涨幅69.4%。

同期,大商所铁矿石期货上涨34.8%,郑商所硅铁期货上涨28.5%。

与之形成鲜明对比的是,今年6月1日以来沪银期货下跌了3.1%,而沪金同期微涨0.3%。

A股上,锂概念股票天齐锂业已经从年初的32.45元/股涨到今日收盘的73.25元/股,年内累计涨幅超过125%;华友钴业累计涨幅超140%;铟概念股票株冶集团6月之8月间涨幅一度超过44%。

沪深上市公司拥有上述小金属资源矿藏的生产加工企业,被称为小金属概念股,也叫稀有金属概念股。与传统的产品分类方式不同,期货投资角度来看,投资者常常将与铜、铝相比市场容量较小的铅锌镍锡以及钒钛铟锆钨等称为小金属。“国家政策及期货价格直接关系这类金属的股价波动,同时这类金属也一直是基金和机构的重仓品种。”相关分析人士认为。

“化学元素周期表是今年最有用的投资参考指南。”有投资者调侃说。

普涨潮背后

“以钨价为例,全球钨产量80%来自中国,中国环保限产政策令国际市场担忧钨供应将遭受严重冲击,市场价格大涨。此外,我国锡、钼、锗、铟、锑占全球比例都在20%以上,而且在工业转型过程中,与新兴产业关系紧密,例如新能源汽车涉及的钴、钯、锂、铂,以及核工业中的核心材料锆,以及主要用于液晶面板、LED芯片以及CIGS光伏薄膜电池等高科技朝阳产业的铟等。”业内研究人士表示。

多位接受中国证券报记者采访的业内人士认为,近年来由于经济衰退,大宗商品价格不断下滑,矿产行业裁员、工人罢工情况时有发生,这些因素共同加剧了金属供应的短缺状况。而与此同时,需求方面,以汽车业为代表的工业需求随着清洁能源、新能源经济的发展出现了爆发式增长,与之相关的锂、钯、钴等金属明显受到提振。

中大期货贵金属分析师赵晓君分析认为,无论是基本金属还是小金属,都逃不开以供需缺口驱动的价格周期,其运行周期自然也跟随宏观的经济周期。随着全球数年货币宽松,美国率先经济企稳复苏,欧洲、中国经济也相继迎来了周期性的反弹,环保政策促进新能源经济走强。同时中国供给侧结构化改革的推行,恰逢国际主要大宗商品巨头在熊市中的收缩,且基本金属的供给收缩也影响了小金属的产出,使得小金属这种供给弹性小,且多为伴生的品种容易产生出人意料的行情。

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