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据此综合判断,8月份继续保持在合理区间的同时,经济运行延续了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。
尽管如此,部分主要经济指标的表现还是应值得关注。
首先,规模以上工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、全国和民间固定资产投资、进出口等指标出现增速放缓,也就是内外需增速都出现一定回落。这种现象,一方面是由一些非经济因素的影响所致,比如7月和8月是高温多雨季节,不少企业正常的生产经营活动受到一些影响,属于短期的非常态波动;另一方面,与产业结构调整有关,比如高耗能制造业增加值增速回落。
其次,PPI涨幅扩大。从环比看,PPI涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点;从同比看,PPI涨幅在连续3个月保持稳定之后,比上月扩大0.8个百分点。个中原因,可能主要由于环保、供给侧结构性改革推动下的限产所致。接下来,PPI涨幅扩大是否会向CPI中非食品类消费品进行传导进而推动CPI上行值得继续观察。
判断经济运走势,须站在一个较长时期去分析、去把握大势。总体上,8月份主要经济指标的表现,说明经济运行继续保持在合理区间,继续呈现稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。但是,受国内外复杂经济形势的影响,某些不稳定不确定因素仍然较多。因此,我们必须紧紧围绕认识、适应、引领新常态这一我国经济发展的大逻辑,保持战略定力,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,在深入推进供给侧结构性改革的同时,适度扩大包括内需和外需在内的总需求,积极促进结构优化升级和新动能成长并放大它们对经济增长的拉动效应,使经济运行在稳的基础上继续有进、向好。
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