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供求转变促PVC行业回暖 多家企业“抱团”涨价

2017-09-11 07:13:40   中国经济网

例如,中泰化学(002092,SZ)2011年的PVC树脂毛利率为16.44%,2015年为22.91%,2017年上半年为32.36%,PVC的营业收入也从2011年的52.41亿元上升至2016年的84.33亿元。君正集团2014年、2015年和2016年PVC的毛利率分别为22.76%、23.74%和34.26%。

不过,也并不是每一家上市公司的PVC业绩都呈直线上升趋势。鸿达兴业(002002,SZ)2015年、2016年和2017年上半年的PVC毛利率分别为33.87%、30.63%和29.07%。而相较于近三年较为稳定的毛利率,鸿达兴业2011年PVC片材、板材营业收入的毛利率为负0.12%。天原集团2017年上半年PVC毛利率为2.25%,上年同期为3.5%。

事实上,PVC的价格回暖也和整个基础化工行业有一定的相关性。长城证券发布的研报称,2017年上半年基础化工行业整体收入增速为42.33%,行业整体毛利率为20.74%,虽较一季度有微幅下降,但仍是近7年来较高水平。

而前述长期研究PVC行业的分析师告诉记者,眼下PVC价格上涨的根源来源于供需关系变化。2011年~2015年,整个PVC行业低位震荡、持续低迷;从2016年起由于去产能产生成效,出现“供小于求”的情况,因而企业的价格也开始回暖。

上述分析师还提到,日趋严格的环保政策也影响着PVC价格。瑞达期货亦分析称,受环保影响,电石开工率受限,价格坚挺,对PVC成本支撑较强。PVC库存维持低位,货源紧张,部分出厂价格继续调涨。

谈到PVC的价格趋势,银河期货分析称,目前部分企业仍有一定欠单,库存低位,短期仍以交还前期订单为主,而部分企业受环保检查,停车现象仍存。9月份英力特、伊东东兴、内蒙亿利等企业存检修计划,预计市场整体供应难以增加。预计9月份PVC市场价格将以高位震荡为主,不排除继续拉涨可能。

(实习生梁欢池对本文亦贡献)

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