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人民币对美元“十连升”市场降准呼声渐起

2017-09-09 07:21:44   中国经济网

对此,王青认为,“趋势引导预期”,这段时期人民币汇价走强已在很大程度上打击了市场空头力量,有力地扭转了贬值预期,我国资本外流压力减轻,央行货币政策操作空间扩大,独立性提高。

黄志龙也认为,人民币贬值预期已经被打破,将有利于减轻资本外流压力,稳定国内流动性预期,提高货币政策的调控空间和独立性。

王青表示,2017年二季度,我国金融机构超储率已从上年最高值2.4%下降至1.4%,银行间市场流动性偏紧态势较为明显,且非银行机构流动性紧张程度更远胜于存款性金融机构。因此在当前人民币大幅升值背景下,市场出现了降准的呼声。

“鉴于金融去杠杆政策仍居主导地位,实施降准释放的宽松信号与此不相协调。此外,当前我国宏观经济运行稳健,实体经济部门融资成本亦未显著上行,通过降准提振经济的需求并不强烈。因此,金融监管层仍将以常备借贷便利(SLF)、中期借贷便利(MLF)等现有货币市场工具为主管理市场流动性问题。”王青表示。

黄志龙表示,当前,存款准备金率仍处于相对高位水平,从长期来看有下调的必要。但降准的宽松信号太过强烈,可能会引起整个市场预期的逆转。所以,央行可能更倾向于采取公开市场操作或MLF等再贷款方式,向市场提供流动性。

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