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创蓝筹破旧立新 题材戏未完待续

2017-09-07 07:41:46   新华网

资金调仓 创业板迎活跃契机

当前,A股市场开始逐步迎来增量活水,在前期金融股和周期股相对滞涨的情况下,不少资金开始调仓中小创,而“国家队”青睐创业板个股、重要股东增持、题材股活跃等因素,有望刺激更多的资金介入博弈。

据国金证券统计,“国家队”二季度持仓4.12万亿元,创历史新高。从各类“国家队”主体来看,持股市值较大的主体依次为汇金公司、证金公司、“国家队”基金和外管局旗下投资平台,持股市值分别为:31376.1亿元、8424.9亿元、956.4亿元、488.9亿元。

其中,尽管金融股仍然是重仓股,但从“国家队”二季度持仓情况来看,中小市值股和估值较低的个股的数目较多。而且,证金公司二季度大举买入创业板个股,创蓝筹个股最受青睐,其中行业集中在医药、电子、计算机和传媒。国金证券统计数据显示,截至2017年二季度,证金公司新进入了68家公司的十大股东之列,其中有27家为创业板公司,占比达40%。而在一季度,证金公司新进十大股东的49家公司中,只有2家创业板公司。此外,二季度新进的27家创业板公司平均ROE(TTM)达14.73%,远高于创业板(剔除温氏股份)的8.47%。

增减持方面,7月18日以来共有229只个股获得重要股东二级市场增持,其中,72只个股来自创业板;83只个股来自中小板,显示出产业资金态度开始转向。海通证券策略分析师荀玉根认为,产业资本增持的动因是估值处在相对较低水平,长期看公司估值将回归历史均值附近,从而在增持后公司股价走势向好。当产业资本进行大量增持时,这表明不少公司估值处在历史较低水平,加之产业资本入场为市场注入增量资金,阶段性市场底部基本确立,利好股市未来走势。

一九格局打破 性价比为王

自2016年初以来,沪指一直运行在3300点下方。期间虽然分别在2016年12月初、2017年4月初和8月初分别三次逼近3300点,但此前两次都以失败告终,而第三次则一鼓作气、冲关成功,给市场情绪带来极大鼓舞。

沪指的突破离不开白马股、周期股和金融股的共同助力,不过也造成了A股市场中长期的一九分化格局。这些热点轮动的背后,有一个共同的逻辑,就是估值和业绩的匹配程度较好。

而今,创业板中的真成长开始发力,背后的逻辑也如出一辙。在剔除今年7月之后上市的次新股之后,北京君正、杭州园林、寒锐钴业、赢时胜、江丰电子、星云股份、欧比特等12只个股7月18日以来累计涨幅超过50%,这些个股均实现了上半年净利润30%以上的同比增幅。

西南证券朱斌策略团队指出,就市盈率而言,目前主板、创业板、中小企业板的整体估值在17倍、48倍、42倍左右,虽然创业板和中小企业板的估值相较于主板依然偏高,但与历史比较,中小板估值已经回到2014年水平,创业板估值更是回到2013年水平,创业板估值降至四年以来低位,与2015年高位时150倍估值相比,下降超三分之二。

在创业板明显滞涨的背后,虽然各板块二季度增速均有所回落,但相较于主板和中小板,创业板二季度下滑幅度最小。就创业板本身而言,中银国际证券指出,创业板内生增速回升,中市值公司盈利能力最好且增速回升。创业板2017年中报内生增速17%,高于2016年的11%和2015年的15%。创业板中市值公司(50-300亿)数量占比不到一半,利润贡献达四分之三,ROE水平也较高,且盈利增速在回升:100-300亿公司中报增速33%,大于一季度的24%;50-100亿公司中报增速29%,大于一季度的28%和2016年报的25%。

当前,投资者可以从估值和业绩的角度,从创业板中挖掘代表未来发展方向的滞涨股,有望获得补涨收益。记者 张怡

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