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风格转换策略优化 量化基金收益回暖

2017-09-05 06:41:52   中国经济网

热点分散策略优化

在分析上半年量化基金业绩遇冷的原因时,财富证券认为,上半年单一的大盘行情市场风格,热点过度集中在少量有安全垫的个股上,使得多数主动管理型量化基金失效。而期指仓位限制后贴水负基差等原因,使得寄希望于通过期货指数对冲来控制回撤的量化策略部分失效。

此外,财富证券认为,量化基金本身的策略存在一定的偏差,有些过于依赖历史统计的量化策略,且此前通过偏重中小市值因子过去获得超额收益,使得此类模型因为没有及时调整而在某一类因子上过度暴露,导致样本外运行出现偏差。

而对于近期主动型量化基金业绩回升的原因,财富证券认为,由于市场风格逐步扩散,相较于之前“漂亮50”一枝独秀的行情,市场热点出现分化,个股拥有更多的表现机会,使得持股相对分散的量化基金有了起色,加上策略的优化,量化产品的业绩出现反弹。

当前市场行情逐步扩散,在量化投资实操中,基本准则是回避人的主观贪婪恐惧等情绪对投资的干扰,回避无效的追涨杀跌,因此财富证券认为,对于股票型基金而言,量化基金仍具备一定的优势。

根据数据,截至9月1日,中国证券报记者统计发现,景顺长城量化新动力以27.22%的年初至今收益依旧领跑主动型量化基金,此外景顺长城量化精选亦以13.80%的年初至今收益表现不俗。

景顺长城旗下量化基金逆市突围,得益于其开放的量化框架,景顺长城量化及ETF投资部投资总监黎海威对中国证券报记者表示,没有一个风格能够永远赚钱。市场会给量化投资者提出各种挑战,如果想获得超越市场的长期收益,必须理解市场,因时因地根据市场变化做出相应调整,逐步形成自己的独特优势。

发行力度不减

尽管上半年度主动型量化基金产品收益相对较弱,但数据显示,截至9月1日,中国证券报记者统计发现,2017年以来依然有46只主动型量化基金产品成立,最早的一只为长信国防军工,成立于2017年1月5日。而最近的9月1日一天内,有3只量化产品面世,分别为新华恒益量化、中金金泽A与中金金泽C。平均下来,今年以来每个月有5只左右主动型量化产品成立。

在业绩相对遇冷,投资者热情相对有所下降的情况下,量化基金的发行数量依旧没有减少,海通证券在分析其中可能的原因时表示,首先是量化产品在国外市场已经非常成熟,而在国内还处在发展的阶段,虽然短期内业绩不佳,但是量化产品的发展趋势良好,还有很大的空间,因此基金公司都不想在产品布局上掉队;其次,量化产品强调的是长期回报,在产品业绩遇到回撤时仍要坚持执行策略,因此各基金公司并没有因为近期的业绩一般就取消原有的发行计划。

此外,财富证券提醒投资者,在甄选量化基金仍需要注意的是,首先产品是否采用严格的系统化量化投资方式,量化产品最基本的就是有完善的投资体系和标准的流程体系;其次,超额收益要稳定,波动率和回撤在一定范围内变化;与此同时,主动型量化基金背后的选股逻辑也十分重要。

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