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A股大涨下B股的“和而不同”

2017-09-04 07:35:52   中国经济网

进入8月,A股市场盘升逻辑未遭到破坏的背景下,上证B股和深证B股走势出现较大分歧。其中,上证B指继续随同A股向上冲锋,成交量能区间性有效放大,而深证B指则掉头下行,整个8月期间下跌2.84%。最近一周,深证B指更显露量价背离端倪,随着指数退守年线,一周成交额环比反而有所增长。

人民币汇率保持强劲为上证B股持续走强创造了条件。8月以来,人民币兑美元连续上涨,8月28日,人民币兑美元中间价报6.6353,较上个交易日大幅上调226个基点,更创下2016年8月以来最高纪录。随后,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元连创新高,逼近6.60关口。整个8月期间,人民币兑美元单月升值幅度近2%。

投资B股向来被投资者视为规避美元下跌风险的“避风港”。市场人士表示,美联储主席耶伦近期出席杰克森霍尔会议时未提及货币政策,令市场降低对美联储加息预期;同时8月美国非农数据不及预期、特朗普医改法案遇挫、飓风哈维袭击德州等因素影响,均对美元走势不利。在美元汇率走弱趋势未出现明显拐点信号的氛围下,避险资金积极进驻B股令上证B指创出阶段新高。并且中国央行货币政策中性偏紧,客观上也对人民币汇率起到支撑,进一步放大了上述避险需求。

对于深证B指而言,今年以来,港币与美元实际利差不断扩大,是导致指数新高之旅夭折的背后推手。过去20多年中,美联储每次加息或降息后,香港金管局几乎都会跟随行动,但去年底以来,尽管香港金管局也跟随美联储加了三次息,但港币对美元却持续贬值。

究其原因,海通证券认为,美联储通过政策利率区间有效控制了美元市场利率,区间下限是ON RRP利率,区间上限是准备金利率,联邦基金的市场利率会落在这个区间内,无套利原则决定了市场利率会随着美联储设定的这一区间迅速调整。而香港的基本利率是贴现窗利率,主要是在银行间资金面紧张时为金融机构提供流动性支持,但当前香港金管局的贴现利率为1.5%,市场短期利率普遍还不到0.5%。

因此,尽管港币采用的是联系汇率制度,但二季度以来,随着低利率促使投资者到其他地区寻求收益,港元兑美元下跌0.45%,创下2007年初以来最大季度跌幅。过大的利差,使得投资者在货币市场借入港币,然后在现汇和远期市场抛售港币买入美元。如此一来,深证B股市场显著承压,令深证B指与上证B指自8月起背道而驰。

调整或难避免

从盘面看,上周五上证B指在盘中创新高的同时,午后涨幅收敛最终收盘微跌,日K线呈上影线较长的类十字星形态,同时成交创阶段新高,凸显多空分歧加剧,谨慎心态开始在市场发酵。而深证B连续下跌后,目前已经退守年线位置,技术支撑凸显,宏观、微观基本面平稳之下,未来走势更多取决于港币汇率波动。

兴业证券分析师认为,若港股延续当前上涨趋势,以及年内大量IPO继续吸引新一轮资金流入,同时美联储仍处于加息周期中,那么年初至今的港币贬值或将延续。相反,若金管局入市干预、港股牛市反转、美联储暂停加息,则可能结束此轮贬值趋势。

对于此轮人民币升值,有专家表示仍应持理性态度。其理由是,当前人民币汇率升值更多地受美元被动拉升,并非趋势性逆转,而是双向波动的一部分。

中信期货研究部金融期货研究主管张革认为,大方向上,汇价仍将跟随外部美元进行波动。在美元走弱的配合下,不排除阶段性的汇价上行与预期改善相互强化的可能,但人民币相对独立性的上行走势概率不大,四季度或将面临一定回调。

汇率因素是支撑二季度B股行情的重要原动力,随着上涨预期边际弱化,分析人士认为,受外围市场映射、资金谨慎心态发酵等影响,短期来看,B股市场出现调整概率较大。

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