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“国家队”频频布局创业板 选股偏重价值投资

2017-08-30 07:45:28   中国经济网

TMT环保生物医药受热捧

截至29日17时,“国家队”新进增持的创业板公司主要集中在市值不小、估值偏低和高成长性行业,同时大部分公司中报业绩表现较为抢眼。

具体来看,证金公司新进24家创业板公司基本属于绩优股。从中报业绩看,除绿盟科技,其余23家创业板公司在2017年上半年全部实现盈利,且净利润规模均位居前列。汤臣倍健以5.82亿元净利润排名创业板第三位;不仅如此,还有16家公司上半年的归属母公司净利润同比增速在16%以上,亿纬锂能以高达161.37%的增速位居首位,并且有四家公司净利润增长超过50%。

从行业分布上看,“国家队”持仓创业板公司分布范围较广,证金公司和汇金公司均偏好TMT、环保及生物医药等热门领域。神雾环保半年报显示,受益于国家持续加大环保督查力度,以及对节能环保产业的支持,公司创新节能工艺的市场认可度稳步提升,在手订单充裕。证金公司以1076.24万股、占比1.07%的持股比例,新晋成为公司第五大股东。汇金公司也新进或增持多家环保公司,包括永清环保、中电环保、津膜科技、环能科技等。社保基金和养老金新进个股数量较少。

除TMT及环保等热门板块之外,防御性较强的生物医药板块也是“国家队”关注的热点,证金公司截至二季度末新进持有安科生物1042.61万股,占公司总股本的1.46%,位居第五大股东席位。

业内人士分析,从“国家队”选股逻辑来看,多数标的是创业板指权重股,行业多分布在国家战略性新兴产业,这类公司大多业绩稳定,估值相对合理。总的来说,“国家队”价值投资选股倾向明显。

这与相关行业发展前景不无关系。国家发改委副秘书长费志荣预计,到2020年,战略性新兴产业增加值占国内生产总值比重将达到15%,形成新一代信息技术、高端制造、生物、绿色低碳、数字创意等5个10万亿元级规模的新支柱,并在更广领域形成大批跨界融合的新增长点,平均每年带动新增就业100万人以上。

创业板后市行情现分歧

指数表现方面,自7月18日以来,创业板走出今年以来幅度最大的一轮上涨行情,近一个多月累计涨幅约10%,而曾撑起一片天的周期股则出现回调,市场风格于成长和周期之间“举棋不定”。

市场分析人士指出,随着上市公司半年报陆续披露,“国家队”创业板布局逐渐显现,创业板维持了“震三步,进一大步”的向上格局。虽然国家队在二季度频频新进创业板个股,但公募基金在甩卖创业板股票,东方财富Choice数据显示,截至二季度末,公募基金对创业板个股的持仓比例已降至历史低位。与此同时,以理性著称的北上资金也在创业板个股身上选择获利了结,市场各方对创业板后市行情出现较大分歧。

国元证券分析师刘明利认为,市场对创业板的偏见正在修正,今年资金价格异常飙升的情况已经过去,三季度是大有可为的时期。中小创估值修复行情虽然会受蓝筹“虹吸效应”影响出现间歇性,但战略上已迎来配置时机,并将逐渐演化成市场风格的转换,预计资金对创业板的配置意愿转向积极,后市行情可期。

此外,不少业内人士认为,本轮创业板行情是否属于反转行情,还有待观察,毕竟相关成分股公司的盈利相继呈现回落态势,而企业盈利的反转需要时间确认。“对中小创个股而言,由于对资金消耗较少,且近期国家队、养老金介入明显,驱动投资者风险偏好提升,由此走出了明显的反弹走势。”万联证券分析师常丹丹指出,短期看,这种风险偏好的提升还能够延续,但长期看,中小创个股依然会面临业绩端压力,趋势性上升的空间并不存在。

“不少投资者会选择跟随‘国家队’进行操作,其中存在盲目跟风的现象。投资者们既要懂得‘国家队’买股的逻辑,又不要唯‘国家队’马首是瞻。”北京某大型券商人士提醒,一些游资利用“国家队”持仓情况进行炒作,引诱散户跟风,导致投资者被套。

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