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牛市是否要来临 私募定了小目标:先看3500点

2017-08-29 09:12:51   中国经济网

而对于本轮市场上涨的级别以及市场的短期目标位,吕宏亮进一步表示,目前市场行情演绎正在从局部牛市向全面牛市的演化,不过本轮牛市如果最终得到证实,一定会以慢牛的姿态出现,“2018年上证指数盘升到4000点到4500点都很有可能。”而在短期市场走势方面,该私募投资人士认为,短期内3500点附近可能会出现较大压力。

上海富钜投资(宽桥金融)首席投资官唐弢:

结合该机构的量化数据模型来看,近期A股市场的在量价两方面的整体表现,已经有了“牛市的味道”。整体而言,市场中期转强的趋势基本已经确立,大盘整体扬升的具体点位还尚难判断,不过在牛市气氛逐步转浓的背景下,市场整体偏强的态势维持“一个季度到半年”,仍然很有希望。

蓝海韬略董事长苏思通表示:

看好本轮市场盘升至3500点一线。随着市场差异化越来越明显,中小投资者正在持续转向白马蓝筹和高成长股。而在市场监管力度不断增强的背景下,大量游资也在回避中小创等小市值个股,并加入了白马蓝筹的投资阵营。综合市场动态博弈,以及央企、国企混改的政策环境来看,未来较长一段时间内市场保持强势将是大概率事件。而在具体点位方面,近期上证指数进一步扬升至3500点附近,预计将不会有太大困难。(注:蓝海韬略是2016年股票策略阳光私募业绩第一名)

值得注意的是,不久前包括上海世诚投资、上海庐雍资产等一些私募机构,也曾向中国证券报记者表示,年初以来市场的结构性上涨,在3500点一线之前,可能都不会有太大的上涨阻力。上海世诚投资总经理陈家琳表示,看好大盘点位在下半年回升到2016年指数熔断前的水平(3550点附近);而上海庐雍资产董事长李思思也表示,从估值和市场做多情绪的推动等角度来看,市场推升至3500点附近,完全合理。

大金融与周期股仍被看好

在私募机构普遍看好A股短中期走势的背景下,对于未来市场进一步的投资机会,券商、银行等大金融板块,以及前期已经有较长时间调整的周期股,则仍然是私募的关注焦点。

富钜投资唐弢:

今年以来大盘蓝筹板块股价的长时间强势,在资金流向等数据层面都有明显支撑。而后期如果越来越多的投资者认识到A股存在再次走牛的机会,则券商股可能会存在长期做多的投资机会。与此同时,从大宗商品价格的走势来看,本轮大宗商品的牛市表现并没有结束的迹象,周期股整体的股价水平也还没有完全体现相关商品价格的上涨利好,未来周期股板块预计也仍然会有再度显著走强的上涨机会。

重阳投资基金经理王晓华:

近阶段金融板块上涨的主要驱动力,源于基本面好于预期。整体来看,保险股中报业绩增长超预期、周期企业盈利好转带动银行股中报表现出资产质量改善等利好因素,未来预计还会对相关板块股价带来偏多推动。此外,创业板中一些估值降至合理区间的优秀企业,业绩仍有快速增长预期,在权重股估值逐步修复后,未来也会有较好的性价比。

鼎锋资产吕宏亮进一步指出:

随着供给侧改革的深入推进以及相关改革效果的显现,商业银行在上游过剩行业的几十万亿不良资产问题,将逐步得到解决,银行业绩增长的拐点也将逐步到来。整体来看,银行股未来的上涨空间不好判断,但股价一定还会再有新高。此外,“牛市炒券商”的规律,未来可能还进一步需要有更多人相信目前A股的上涨是“牛市的开端”,券商板块的继续大幅拉涨,可能还需要A股成交量逐步放大的配合。而周期股还处在“均值回归”的过程之中,“未来周期股一定还有下半场”。

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