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解析央行半年报 下半年金改红利释放更明显

2017-07-13 18:22:39   中国经济网

2.15月26日,央行开始在人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子。这一改革的主要目的是适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动。在正式推出这项改革措施之前,已有部分银行先行进行了试点,并取得了不错的效果。

2.27月3日,中国外汇交易中心发布的数据显示,截至6月30日,CFETS人民币汇率指数为93.29,较上月末升值0.97%,参考BIS货币篮子、SDR货币篮子的两个人民币汇率指数分别为94.25和94.18,较上月末分别升值1.00%和升值0.49%。

而在5月份,这三个指数分别下降0.42%、0.43%和0.52%。

这说明,逆周期因子的引入对于汇率的稳定发挥了重要作用,市场对人民币汇率的预期也由贬转升。逆周期因子根据宏观经济等基本面变化动态调整,有利于引导市场在汇率形成中更多关注宏观经济等基本面情况,使中间价报价更加充分地反映我国经济运行等基本面因素,更真实地体现外汇供求和一篮子货币汇率变化。

利率

两次上调公开市场利率 并非针对美联储加息

3.12月3日和3月16日,公开市场7天期、14天期和28天期逆回购中标利率先后两次上行,幅度均为10个基点,3个品种的利率分别为2.45%、2.60%和2.75%。同时,央行面向主要银行开展的MLF操作利率也以相同幅度上行。而3月份的公开市场利率调整发生在美联储加息几个小时之后,于是业界猜测央行此举系为变相加息,目的就是应对美联储加息。

但事实并非如此。第一季度受财政库款较快增长和季末财政加大支出、春节前现金集中大量投放和节后持续回笼、3月中旬可转债发行冻结申购资金等因素影响,市场资金供求大起大落,流动性出现大幅波动。在这种状况下,央行动用价格工具进行平抑,同时采用MLF、PSL、TLF以及合理摆布逆回购等措施,熨平了临时性和季节性因素对流动性的扰动,维护了流动性平稳运行与中性适度。

央行强调,公开市场利率随行就市适度上行,反映了2016年以来在内外部因素综合作用下货币市场利率中枢上行的走势,是在保持流动性基本稳定目标下市场供求推动的结果,不应该将公开市场利率上行与“加息”划上等号。

3.26月15日凌晨,美联储宣布加息25个基点,这与市场预期一致。但央行并未调整公开市场利率,印证了此前的公开市场利率上调并非是针对美联储加息而采取的变相加息措施。

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