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“北向通”3日上线 68万亿人民币债市迎开放新突破
2017-07-03 18:31:44 经济参考报
央行此前表示,从其他国家债券市场对外开放的经验看,境外投资者既可以采取逐家到境内开户模式入市,也可以通过基础设施连通的模式投资于该国债券市场。前一种模式下,对境外投资者要求较高,需要对该国债券市场相关法规制度和市场环境有全面深入的了解;后一种模式下,境外投资者依靠基础设施互联和多级托管便捷地“一点接入”全球债券市场,成为国际主流做法。“债券通”属于后一种模式,其通过两地债券市场基础设施连接,使国际投资者能够在不改变业务习惯,同时有效遵从内地市场法规制度的前提下,便捷地参与内地债券市场。
德意志银行高级策略分析师刘立男表示,在现有项目基础上,“债券通”将为全球机构投资者全面打开境内67.6万亿元人民币固定收益市场。基于“沪港通”和“深港通”的成功经验,“债券通”也有效解决了国际投资者对人民币全面可兑换和资本跨境流动的担心。预计“债券通”落地初期,资本流入趋势平缓,随后规模逐步扩大。德意志银行维持先前预测,认为未来五年外资流入人民币债市的规模或达7000亿至8000亿美元,人民币债券有望在今年下半年纳入主要全球债券指数。
汇丰亚太区行政总裁王冬胜表示:“‘债券通’是推动中国债券市场持续发展及迈向全球化的重要催化剂,同时有助于巩固香港作为国际金融中心的地位。‘债券通’不仅鼓励更多的国际投资者参与全球第三大债券市场,也有助于激发对内地固定收益产品的新投资需求,从而最终吸引更多海外机构在内地发行人民币债券。”
值得注意的是,在此前发布的《内地与香港债券市场互联互通合作管理暂行办法》中,原征求意见稿中出现的“‘北向通’没有投资额度限制”的表述被删去,但暂行办法也没有提及任何额度限制。工银国际研究部主管程实表示,估计其中有两个考虑:第一,可能是出于风险管理,如明确没有额度限制,可能触发跨境资金大规模流动,引起市场波动,把这一表述删去,可以让监管层有更大的弹性去管理资金流入的速度和规模;第二,可能是出于对未来推出“南向通”的考虑,在公平的原则下,“北向通”和“南向通”的投资额度应该是对等的,如“北向通”明确没有投资额度限制,市场会预期将来的“南向通”也获得类似的对待,但这可能会加大资金流出的压力,不利于市场稳定。记者 张莫 北京报道
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