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专家:中国宏观经济环境持续改善 全年将现“前高后稳”

2017-07-03 18:27:20   

二、经济运行中的主要问题

一是项目融资困难有所加剧。根据财政部等五部委《关于进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为的通知》要求,PPP项目只能通过平台公司市场化运作融资,地方政府财政不得违规举债。据调研和相关机构测算,当前国内较多地区的一些重大基础设施项目和重点建设项目资金筹措主要采用PPP模式,受此政策影响,金融机构大多采取观望态度,不再继续支持市场化运作PPP项目的融资,已经影响到部分项目的有序推进。

二是货币信贷供给总体偏紧。从M2增速看,今年5月份的月度M2增速已持续回落至9.6%,是有史以来的最低水平。从货币市场利率看,去年1个月到6个月的各类同业存款利率基本维持在2%至3%的常态已经被打破,今年以来,各类同业拆借利率总体持续上升,特别是4月份以来,4%以上的利率成为常态,5%以上的利率也不少见,已跟流向实体经济企业的贷款利率形成倒挂。

三是企业融资难融资贵问题仍较突出。年初以来,工业企业的财务费用增长明显加快,累计同比由去年底的-5.8%快速回升至今年4月的1.3%。这在很大程度上是受到近期货币收缩和金融监管加强的影响。一是今年以来的货币信贷供给增速持续放缓,导致一些地区行业贷款出现净减少趋势,原本一些较好企业较好项目也面临贷款减少的问题。二是民营企业融资依然难依然贵。据一些地区调研反映情况看,民营企业贷款成本仍普遍在8%以上,小微企业贷款成本在10%以上,且贷款比例仅占20%左右。三是金融去杠杆带来的货币利率上升已经超过流向实体经济的企业贷款利率,如此利率倒挂也抬高了实体经济企业的隐性利率成本。

三、下半年经济走势预测

(一)预计下半年投资增长8.3%左右

首先,资金来源增速在回升。1至5月份固定资产投资资金来源增速较1至4月份回升1.3个百分点,预算内资金、国内贷款和自筹资金增速均出现不同程度的回升。其次,从施工和新开工项目看,1至5月份施工项目计划总投资增速比1至4月份回升0.4个百分点;新开工项目计划总投资同比降幅较1至4月份收窄0.3个百分点。从三大类投资来看,基建投资增速将继续小幅回落。一是财政收入增速出现回落,财政收支矛盾凸显;二是地方政府债务问题再次进行整顿,地方政府加杠杆乏力,收入来源下降。制造业投资回升对投资增长形成支撑。在三大投资中,制造业投资比重最大,制造业投资的回升将会对固定资产投资增长形成支撑。一是终端需求回暖导致制造业投资扩大。二是产业调整的周期性回升。当前我国产业调整的单边下行周期持续时间已经超过了国际平均水平,预计下半年产业调整将进入短周期回升阶段。三是从长周期来看,如果制造业投资增速持续低于经济增长速度,那么意味着资本开支持续收缩,将会产生产品供不应求的结果,最终导致资本开支被动扩张。房地产投资将回落至3%至4%的水平。在房地产调控政策效果持续显现的影响下,商品房销售增速已经开始回落。虽然棚户区改造会有一定拉动,但总体判断下半年房地产投资将进一步回落。

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