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内地香港债券通路线图出炉 初期先开通“北向通”

2017-05-17 09:24:07   经济参考报

“债券通”属于后一种模式,其通过两地债券市场基础设施连接,使国际投资者能够在不改变业务习惯、同时有效遵从内地市场法规制度的前提下,便捷地参与内地债券市场。

东方金诚评级副总监程春曙在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,“‘债券通’可以推动中国债券市场的登记结算、信用评级与信息披露等相关制度安排与国际标准接轨,提升中国债券市场对境外投资者的吸引力,实现债券市场的国际化;另外,在方便境外投资者参与日益活跃的中国债券市场,进一步提升市场的活跃度,以及境内投资者实现资产的全球化配置等方面都有实质意义。”

值得关注的是,此次“债券通”将分步实施。现阶段实施“北向通”,未来根据两地金融合作总体安排适时开通“南向通”。央行称,这一方面是为了满足现阶段国际投资者投资内地债券市场的需求,另一方面,也符合分步实施、稳妥推进的原则。“债券通”是内地与香港两个债券市场两种交易结算制度的对接,涉及到两地交易、结算等多家金融基础设施平台,在技术和实施要求等方面存在一定的复杂性和挑战。

“在当前人民币汇率仍承受一定贬值压力,以及资金外流压力持续的情况下,这种单向操作的安排在进一步对外开放国内资本市场的同时,也避免加大资金外流的忧虑。”工银国际首席经济学家程实表示。

“未来,‘债券通’的理想状态是资金流入和流出保持平衡。但考虑到目前国内投资者对境外债券市场的了解程度和风险承受能力有限,同时我国债券收益率水平相对较高,短期来讲,资金流入应更加积极。”德意志银行高级策略师刘立男对记者表示。她也称,随着人民币国际化程度的提升,未来流入境内市场的资金量会迎来实质性增长。根据德银的预测,未来五年内,外资流入人民币债市的规模或达7000亿至8000亿美元,2017年将有3000亿人民币流入在岸人民币债市。

穆迪大中华区信用研究分析副董事总经理钟汶权也表示,由于种种境内外市场的差别以及对一些信用违约事件的担忧,目前境外投资者投资国内债市大部分集中在国债和政策性银行债等利率债,对信用债投资较少。不过,过去两年,国内监管层已进一步加强国内债市的机制完善,如加入债券的约束性条款、推出CDS帮助投资者对冲风险等,因此预计未来两三年国内债市会越来越与境外市场接轨,而这都将有助于吸引资金的进一步流入。

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