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当前,我国经济下行压力持续存在,未来加大积极财政政策的实施力度十分必要。然而,财政收入低速增长,实施积极财政政策的难度显著增加。当前应以“稳增长”为积极财政政策的核心目标,供给侧改革和扩大内需并重,将积极财政政策的重心从结构性减税深化为降低宏观税负。采取适度扩大财政赤字规模、切实降低企业税费负担、推进个人所得税改革、加强财政风险防控及提高财政资金使用效率等措施。
受经济增速减缓以及“营改增”政策性减收效应等因素的影响,2016年以来全国财政收入继续呈现低速增长态势,然而,政府支出力度并没有因此而减弱,尤其是社会保障和就业、医疗卫生与计划生育、城乡社区、住房保障等有关民生项目的政府支出依然保持了较快增长,这表明当前积极财政政策对保民生的力度依然较大。当前,实施积极财政政策面临着诸多困难。首先,财政收入低速增长,扩大支出的途径受到制约;其次,此番积极财政政策已实施多年,财政赤字规模不断扩大,大幅度提高财政赤字的空间已相对较小;最后,由于当前我国经济社会发展面临的情况更加错综复杂,政策目标难以兼顾。增加政府投资与保民生、支持供给侧改革与扩大内需、实施财政补贴与其外部性效应,积极财政政策如何协调处理这些关系面临很大的难度。在这种情况下,如何有效实施积极财政政策成为关键问题。
目前,供给侧改革与扩大内需是积极财政政策促进经济增长的两个主要实现途径。一方面,积极财政政策要大力支持供给侧改革,核心是为实体经济减轻税费负担和经济结构调整提供有力支撑。另一方面,积极财政政策要在扩大市场需求方面下功夫,努力改善企业发展的需求环境。企业发展的原动力在于市场需求,如果没有市场需求,企业就没有发展的空间和动力源泉。需要特别强调的是,当前应有意识地加强积极财政政策对扩大内需的作用。
第一,适度扩大财政赤字规模。目前我国仍具有适度扩大财政赤字规模的一定空间和有利条件。首先,我国仍有相对较高的储蓄率;其次,居民消费需求相对不足;最后,近几年我国赤字率虽不断提高,但均在安全线之内,特别是没有出现持续多年高赤字的情况。需要明确指出的是,赤字财政不能作为刺激经济的常态方法,长期大规模的赤字财政对未来经济发展极为不利,是未来经济发展的重大隐患。财政本身并不创造资金,财政收入最终来源于全体国民的收入,财政赤字最终要由全体国民来“买单”。为此,我国应当认真吸取西方国家在财政赤字及债务方面的经验教训,务必将财政赤字水平与债务规模控制在适度的范围内。
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