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从历史上看,时隔32年,在同一天发生强震实在太巧合。人们因此也把注意力转到,墨西哥城的城市规划和选址是否有问题?墨西哥有一首广为流传的民歌:“瓜达拉哈拉城建在平原上,墨西哥城建在一个湖心中……”
孙士鋐指出,墨西哥城的确地质松软,加剧了附近地震对其的破坏力,“实际上墨西哥城发生强震的可能性比较低,但是由于墨西哥城建立在一个松软的沼式地的地方,所以即便是别的地方发生的地震也对它会起到一种增强的效应。而9月8日那一次地震离墨西哥城比较远,有700公里左右,所以那次地震对墨西哥城没有什么影响。实际上,对墨西哥城造成较重灾难的地震都是在离墨西哥城大约200到300公里的地方,二三百公里以外一般都不会受到很大破坏,但墨西哥城建在一个比较松软的地基上,所以二三百公里以外的地震对它有一个放大作用,从而造成很大损失。这一次的地震离墨西哥城比较近,大概一百公里左右,但是这次地震的震源深度相对较深,所以相应也会减轻一些破坏。”
地震对于大城市的破坏程度可想而知,那么,人类在大城市的选址上,能否科学避开地震带?
孙士鋐解释说:“在大城市的选址问题上,从地震结构出发应该避开地震带,但是大城市选址往往要考虑到其他一些因素,比如水资源,经常在一些水资源比较丰富的地方,然而水资源丰富的地方往往又是断裂带比较发育的地区。其实从地震带的分布可以看出,往往在一些大的河流的窄弯角上分布着一些大城市,而这些河流的窄弯角上又往往是构造活动比较强的地区,比如日本的东京湾、横滨那一代都是地震活动地区。大城市的选址有时候是矛盾的,它必须要考虑到水资源生活交通等方方面面,特别是以前都靠河流的航运,但是往往这些地方可能是地壳活动水平比较高的地区。另外,毕竟地震的发生是一个小概率(事件),在这选址,尽管这个地方历史上有地震活动,但是下一个地震不知什么时候发生。另外,在这个活跃时代可能处在一个地震活动带上,但可能在未来几百年,又不处在这个活动带。比如美国现在的地震活动很明显处在西海岸,加利福尼亚地区,从洛杉矶到旧金山,而它的东海岸华盛顿、纽约这带地震活动水平很低,但是四百年以前在华盛顿、纽约这一带地震活动水平也很高,所以从科学角度完全要避免地震现在还比较难。”
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