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安倍或提前解散众议院举行大选 媒体预测投票日为10月下旬

2017-09-20 07:32:10   央广网

此外,日本一些主流媒体也对安倍决定解散众议院提出了批评。《朝日新闻》的社论说,安倍的解散决定如果是为了掩盖丑闻和优先本党利益,将是“解散权的滥用”,《每日新闻》批评安倍的决定“难言大义”、“优先考虑自己”。

目前,安倍晋三正在美国纽约参加联合国大会,此前安倍曾表示,参加联大回国后将就是否解散众议院作出回应。对此,日本问题专家周永生分析认为,目前来看安倍解散众议院的可能性比较大,他可能在十月份宣布这一决定。“按照安倍的时间计划表来看,他从美国参加联大会议回来以后做决定,可能要到十月份再宣布。如果要解散众议院是要提前大选,按照现在日本众议院众议员的任期,到2018年12月18日到期,按照正常的日本选举来说,应是2018年11月举行选举。现在他要提前解散众议院,必然要进行新的选举,按照日本选举法规定,首相有权解散众议院,宣布解散众议院以后必须得在四十天以内举行新的众议员的选举。”

2014年11月,执政两年的安倍就曾为了推进争议颇大的“安倍经济学”而解散过众议院提前大选。这次可能要解散众议院进行提前大选的原因是什么呢?日本问题专家周永生分析,安倍认为此时进行大选是其最有利的时机。“一来此前暴跌的支持率正由于内阁重组和朝鲜不断的导弹试射而有所回升,民众对他的再次支持无疑是其大选的好兆头。二来,趁着在野党毫无准备之际提前大选也为自己的胜利创造更高的几率。”

周永生分析,“在这之前,安倍的支持率跌落至30%以下,最低的支持率25%。8月3日重新改组内阁以后,支持率有回升,最高的支持率已经达到了44%。9月3日朝鲜试射导弹,又促使安倍支持率进一步回升,一部分日本民众认为安倍对朝鲜的强硬政策、强军政策、修改宪法的政策是对的。朝鲜进行核试验导致安倍的支持率进一步上升,已突破50%。安倍想借着高昂的支持率,提前解散众议院举行大选,能得到民众大量支持,能让自民党再次获胜,使安倍本人再次获胜。同时,在野党现在没有准备好,民进党的支持率只10%左右,刚换了党首前原诚司,又有一些列丑闻缠身,现在民进党不成气候,不是安倍的对手。其他党派想联合,由于各种各样的矛盾联合不起来。另外一个竞争是小池百合子(东京都知事)刚成立的日本第一会,还没有安排就绪,安倍觉得她不可能对自身形成威胁和竞争,等日本第一会尘埃落定人马落定,可能会分散选票。”

不过,周永生认为即便安倍这一次成功解散了议会并赢得了大选,他今后的日子也未必会好过,修宪派的力量可能会被削减,自民党的执政地位也有可能出现动摇。提前大选更像是一场赌局,不过安倍为了保住自己的执政地位会甘愿冒此风险。“如果解散众议院会提前举行大选,自民党肯定会再次获胜。可能出乎安倍的预料,修宪派的力量会削减,会减少大约四十席到六十席左右,这次大选可能会流失一些选票和席位。但如果不提前举行大选,拖到明年正常举行大选,他丢的选票会更多,森友学园丑闻事件导致安倍前一阵支持率已大幅度下跌,长期执政下去恐怕还得跌。民进党攻击安倍很厉害,认为他完全是为私利提前解散众议院,不顾国家安危,现在朝鲜正在进行核试验的危险时期,突然要解散众议院,出现权力的真空,对日本非常不安全。这种宣传可能导致安倍的支持率下降,安倍尽管能够获胜,选票要有部分流失是大趋势。”

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