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我们再来看一下当时的A股行情,上证指数是从2004年4月5日的1783点高点一路走低,到2005年6月6日达到一个阶段低点998点,此后是震荡到2005年底,然后开始了一轮波澜壮阔的牛市,冲向高峰6124点。
当时有媒体报道,罗杰斯在2004年5月的观点种提到,投资者应该更多地到商品市场里去寻找机会,而不是股市,认为铜价会继续走高,认为未来10年,世界范围内的期货市场都将持续走牛。如果翻看沪铜期货的情况,在2006年确实是冲上了高峰,而且其行情比股市要来得早,但在2008年也是有过断崖式的下行。
对于股票何时买卖的问题,罗杰斯所谈的内容其实并不高深,而是最基本的市场规律。比如他说,在牛市最高点,每个人都非常乐观,疯狂地买进股票,周围的人都在大谈投资的成功经验。当一些人甚至放弃工作,专职炒股时,就有可能是牛市顶点,我会在疯狂的情况出现之前做空头。熊市最低点时,每个人都会说股市投资不理智,传媒充斥投资者破产的消息,毕业生不愿意去金融行业工作,这时,你能找到非常廉价的投资机会。
近两年,罗杰斯频繁出席各种中国的投资论坛,接受访问越来越多,但也开始受到越来越多的质疑。比如在网上我也看到有文章直接发问“罗杰斯到底是绝世高手还是投资骗子?”也有人直指他是“大忽悠”。看来,大师不是那么好当的,罗杰斯到底因为什么被质疑?对于有着“大师”头衔的罗杰斯,我们又该如何评价?
《易说》专栏正在给大家送福利,关注《易说》的微信公众号就可以免费领取精品投资课程光盘,在微信搜索公众号:yishuo618,添加关注,查看详情。
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