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俄日合作面前还横亘着三座“大山”
分析人士认为,虽然近年来俄日互动增加,但经贸关系水平低、领土争端以及安全分歧是横亘在俄日提升互信合作道路上的“三座大山”,俄日关系在可预见的未来不会大幅跃进。
首先,长期以来,俄罗斯和日本的经贸关系水平很低,两国目前都不是对方的重要经济伙伴。俄日间现在进行的经济对话,都是依靠安倍强行推动。但生意就是生意。俄罗斯科学院远东研究所日本研究中心高级研究员库兹明科夫认为,俄日可合作的项目有限。
其次,领土争端仍无解。当前,日本认为共同经济活动不能在俄罗斯法律基础上进行,不同意把前往南千岛群岛视作进入外国领土。而俄罗斯认为,根据二战结果,俄对南千岛群岛的主权不容置疑。在此次东方经济论坛期间,俄日双方围绕共同经济活动进行了讨论,但在法律问题上未取得突破。
第三,在东北亚安全保障问题上,双方也存在矛盾。去年,俄罗斯更新了部署在千岛群岛的武器装备,令日本不满。而美日之间紧密勾连的盟友关系也让俄罗斯心生警惕。
吕耀东直言,日俄两国虽然在经贸、安全领域开展合作,但在领土问题等敏感问题上回旋的余地并不大。因此,“无论如何,日俄高层努力推进两国外交关系的步子已经迈出。至于步子能迈多大,迈多快,短期内恐怕不容期待过高。”
(创意产品工作室 沈冰洁 文字综合新华网、人民日报海外版、文汇报等)
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