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另一方面,普京仍然没有放弃与特朗普建立私交、进而推动俄美关系改善的意愿。原本,特朗普上台时喊出“美国第一”口号时,不少分析家预计他会在全球实现战略收缩,但结果看到的是:美国空袭叙利亚、增兵阿富汗、继续巡航南海等。可以说,特朗普政府当前的对外战略仍处于混乱和摇摆当中。在这个时候,对俄罗斯来说,避其锋芒,以免建制派给特朗普更多施压、出台更多不利于俄的政策,是更加务实的选择。
所以,我们看到,俄罗斯采取的反制措施,是从外交层面展开的。这种方式,既可表达不满和愤怒,但又不具有很强杀伤力,展现了俄基于现实的考虑,也为俄美关系转圜留下了余地。
事实上,这一迹象目前似乎已经显露。作为对俄削减美驻俄外交人员的回应,美国又是关闭俄领馆,又是暂停对俄签证,看似很高调,但实际上仍是外交层面的过招。而在美国国务院举行的电话说明会中,有高级官员指出,美国关闭俄驻美的3处领事馆或办事处后,俄在美国的外交人员及设施依然多于美在俄的人员及设施,主要目的正是为了防止美俄关系的继续下降。
危中有机。正如刚上任的俄罗斯驻美国大使阿纳托利•安东诺夫所说,俄美对抗是没有前景的,这场对抗中没有赢家。美俄虽然存在着难以调和的结构性矛盾,但在叙利亚问题、反恐问题上,在能源、航空、太空等领域又有合作的需要,注定闹得再凶,也难以真正撕破脸。所以,这一轮密集的外交过招之后,俄美或许会抓住某一点,比如叙利亚问题上的合作,从而将关系稍稍改善。(盛玉红)
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