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长江商学院终身教授:科大讯飞业绩含金量低 风险巨大

2017-08-30 09:51:40   中国经济网

(五)科大讯飞:只擅长管小公司,不擅长管大公司

科大讯飞在上市前是一家小巧而精致的公司。各项财务指标都是过去10年中最好的。从资产到存货,从应收款到销售,再到利润。无论从哪个角度看,那时候的科大讯飞都是一个不错的小公司。但如今,科大讯飞长大了,各方面的表现却变差了。或许,它正在下一盘很大的棋……

第一,资产规模的大幅度增长只是“虚胖”。截止到2016年底,公司资产总额为104.14亿,较之上市当年的5.97亿,增长了16.45倍。他们都买了些什么资产?其中包括,固定资产10.6亿(主要为房产、计算机设备和专用设备),无形资产10.7亿(主要为软件和校名使用权),商誉11.26亿(主要为购并溢价)。

由于公司连续不断的购并,导致公司非流动资产合计大幅度增长至48.81亿,占总资产的46.87%,远高于上市前25%的水平。尤其是商誉和无形资产等虚资产占比过高,导致公司资产估值风险巨大。

第二,资产规模膨胀导致利用效率下降。公司2016年资产周转率仅为0.32次,远低于上市前的0.76次的水平。应收款项周转率为1.76次,远低于上市前2.19次的水平;存货周转率2.72次,远低于十年前18.27次的水平。由此,我们似乎只能猜测,这家公司的管理层或许只会管理小规模的公司,而不擅长管理规模长大了的公司。

第三,公司管理层似乎正在下一盘很大的棋。从上面的分析可知,这并非是一家擅长管理的公司,但却是一家十分重视研发和营销的公司。相较之下,他们对营销的重视程度要远胜于对研发的重视。公司自2014年开始,便加大了对营销的投入力度。每年投入销售费用分别为2.4亿、3.76亿和6.49亿,其增长速度要远快于销售收入的增长速度,说明公司最近三年的经营理念非常进取,大有造势的意味。

相较之下,研发投入则显得要温和许多。虽然也有较大增幅,但总体增长缓慢。自2014年以来,研发投入分别为5.18亿,5.77亿和7.09亿,其增长幅度仅为41.32%、11.44%和22.84%。由此也可看出,研发与市场孰轻孰重?管理层最终还是选择了营销造势而非低调创新。当然,这只是经营企业的理念不同,无可厚非。关键还是要看业绩,看增长。

综合上述,科大讯飞在经营层面是一家快速增长但含金量不高的公司;在管理层面,是一家扩张很快但效率低下的公司;在财务层面,是一家擅长募资但却不擅赚钱的公司;在业绩层面,是一家大手笔花钱但股东回报率却低下的公司。在其光鲜的增长背后,其实隐含了巨大的风险。或许,公司正在下一盘很大的棋,而作为俗人的我,又无从所知。

当然,我们所给出的以上分析结论并不涉及或针对科大讯飞股票的任何卖出、持有或买入的推荐。本人的分析只是基于财报分析所得出的片面结论,不足为信。只期望读者朋友们能够透过这一案例的分析学会价值投资的分析方法和要点,学会穿透财报数字去发现背后的事实和真相。当然,如果能够通过本文给公司管理层提供一些思考、启示和鞭策,那将是本人的意外之喜。

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