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长江商学院终身教授:科大讯飞业绩含金量低 风险巨大

2017-08-30 09:51:40   中国经济网

公司2016年度净利润为4.97亿,较之上市前一年的2007年净利润0.54亿增长了8.28倍,较上年同期增长13.79%。过去十年的平均复合增长率达到31.09%。

由此,我们也可以得出初步结论,科大讯飞是一家快速成长的高科技公司,其销售和利润都取得了不俗的成绩,光鲜靓丽。但其实这一结论只看到了表面,如果深入到收入和利润这两个指标的内部,我们会发现它的含金量偏低。

第一,同样是销售,国内市场销售与国际市场销售,其含金量便有差异。公司2016年度销售总收入33.21亿,其中仅有0.16亿是源自海外的日本市场,中国本地市场销售占到总收入的99.5%。因此,从财报角度来说,公司虽有世界级的技术,但其产品或服务却并未得到世界认同。目前还只能称其为是中国本土的一家高科技企业。

第二,同样是销售,高毛利的销售还是低毛利的销售,其品质便有不同。2016年公司综合销售毛利率为50.52%,较上年度的48.9%略有增长,较2007年的42.45%有较大幅度的增长,这是好的。但如果进一步从产品构成来细分,毛利最高的产品是电信增值产品运营,高达84.73%,其次是教育产品和服务,高达55.71%,再是信息工程与运维,仅为15.56%。由此,我们认为公司产品的销售毛利率区间跨度太大,从16%到85%,这一方面增加了公司销售收入的复杂性,另一方面,也增加了公司的管理难度。而且,近三分之一的收入是源自于低毛利的信息工程与运维(系统集成与维护)收入,这在一定程度上也降低了销售收入的含金量。

第三,同样是销售,自己挣出来的销售与购并买来的销售,其含金量自是不同。前者要通过自身的核心能力才能办到,后者只要肯花钱就能做到。过去10年,公司销售虽然增长了15倍,但其中大部分增长却是买来的增长。2016年,公司出资4.95亿元收购乐知行100%股权;出资1.01亿元,收购讯飞皆成23.2%股权;2015年,出资1500万,收购启明玩具60%股权;出资3720万元,收购安徽信投18.6%的股权;2014年出资2.16亿收购上海瑞元100%股权;2013年出资4.8亿收购启明科技100%股权。

这些并购,便成为推高了公司销售增长的主要因素。虽然合并报表的销售收入保持了快速增长,但其含金量却并不高。所以,过去10年,其利润的增长幅度(8倍)远不如其销售收入的增长幅度(15倍)。

第四,同样是销售,新增销售与原有销售的增长速度不同,其含金量亦有不同。综观公司2016年度财报,增长最快的业务是大数据广告平台收入0.89亿,上年同期仅有0.13亿,增长569%;其次是智能硬件产品收入0.35亿,上年同期仅为0.08亿,增长335%。

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